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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are modestly lower following a softer than expected inflation report out of the UK.

Gold prices are down more than 2% this morning after falling as much as 6.3% yesterday, the biggest single-day selloff in 12 years. The price of the precious metal is still up an extraordinary 54% on the year, so a pullback was likely due at this point. That said, there are clearly heightened jitters (perhaps some paranoia) now that the current credit cycle has run so long. In a recent piece, the IMF warned of elevated financial stability risks “amid stretched asset valuations, sovereign bond market pressures, and rising influence of nonbank financial institutions,” In other words, they are expressing concern of sharp corrections looming across various asset classes. As noted in yesterday’s commentary, it has been a strong run for risky assets over the last 4-5 months in particular. On the bright side, credit fundamentals for consumer and corporate balance sheets, in aggregate, remain relatively sound, but there are always pockets of weakness in any environment. The primary question for markets to then discern is whether negative events are idiosyncratic or systemic, and markets don’t always react in “rational” fashion.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/22/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/22/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-0.30%-1.80%
10/23/2025Chicago Fed National Activity Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —     —
10/23/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/23/2025Continuing Claims1930k     —     —
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales4.06m     —4.00m
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.50%     —-0.20%
10/23/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2     —4
10/24/2025CPI MoM0.40%     —0.40%
10/24/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/24/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —2.90%
10/24/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%     —3.10%
10/24/2025CPI Index NSA325.01     —323.976
10/24/2025Core CPI Index SA330.781     —329.793
10/24/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.9     —52
10/24/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.5     —54.2
10/24/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.5     —53.9
10/24/2025New Home Sales709k     —800k
10/24/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.40%     —20.50%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment54.6     —55
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions61     —61
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Expectations51     —51.2
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.70%
10/24/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-9
10/24/2025Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey   
10/24/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
10/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
10/27/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.10%     —     —
10/27/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-8.7
10/28/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.07%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.82%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.68%
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-17
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-7
10/28/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.8     —94.2
10/28/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —125.4
10/28/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —73.4
10/28/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-5.6
10/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%
10/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —     —
10/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.0b     —-$85.5b
10/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
10/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —4.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —0.50%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —4.15%
10/29/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.00%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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