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Author Jason Haley

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A 5% surge in oil prices is helping push Treasury yields up 2-4 basis points this morning.

The rally in oil prices coincides with the White House announcing fresh sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies. The Trump administration is also said to be considering plans to limit software-powered exports to China for products ranging from laptops to jet engines in retaliation to China’s rare earth mineral export curbs. Later this morning, the existing home sales data for September will be released, and tomorrow, we will get a rare look at a critical government data report during the shutdown when the September CPI is released.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/23/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Chicago Fed National Activity Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Jobless Claims Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales4.06m     —4.00m
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.50%     —-0.20%
10/23/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2     —4
10/24/2025CPI MoM0.40%     —0.40%
10/24/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/24/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —2.90%
10/24/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%     —3.10%
10/24/2025CPI Index NSA325.01     —323.976
10/24/2025Core CPI Index SA330.781     —329.793
10/24/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.9     —52
10/24/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.5     —54.2
10/24/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.1     —53.9
10/24/2025New Home Sales708k     —800k
10/24/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.50%     —20.50%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment54.6     —55
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions61     —61
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Expectations51     —51.2
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.70%
10/24/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-9
10/24/2025Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey   
10/24/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
10/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
10/27/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.10%     —     —
10/27/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-8.7
10/28/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.07%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.82%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.68%
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-17
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-7
10/28/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.8     —94.2
10/28/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —125.4
10/28/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —73.4
10/28/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-5.6
10/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%
10/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —     —
10/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.0b     —-$85.5b
10/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
10/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —4.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —0.50%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —4.15%
10/29/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.00%
10/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%     —3.80%
10/30/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/30/2025Personal Consumption     —     —2.50%
10/30/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Price Index     —     —2.10%
10/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.60%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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