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Author Jason Haley

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The Treasury market rallied overnight, retracing some of this week’s selloff. 

There’s no clear catalyst for today’s move, which is more likely attributable to dip buying from overseas investors. This morning’s rally has faded somewhat after initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 15,000 to 227,000 last week, but there is still likely noise in the data related to the recent hurricanes.

The NY Fed released an in-depth research piece yesterday critical of bank lending practices in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector. “We show that banks ‘extended and pretended’ their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility,” said the authors. Loan maturity extensions in the CRE mortgage market are nothing new, but the authors suggest it may be masking capital issues for some banks in the current environment that are effectively ‘kicking the can’ down the road. A Reuters article discussing the NY Fed piece also highlighted the recent decision by Moody’s to lift the outlook on the banking sector from negative to stable, as well as a research report from Goldman Sachs last month noting “there remains little evidence of a credit crunch in the CRE market.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/24/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.5-0.280.12-0.01
10/24/2024Initial Jobless Claims242k227k241k242k
10/24/2024Continuing Claims1875k1897k1867k1869k
10/24/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI47.5—47.3—
10/24/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55—55.2—
10/24/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI53.8—54—
10/24/2024New Home Sales720k—716k—
10/24/2024New Home Sales MoM0.60%—-4.70%—
10/24/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-7—-8—
10/25/2024Durable Goods Orders-1.00%—0.00%—
10/25/2024Durables Ex Transportation-0.10%—0.50%—
10/25/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%—0.30%—
10/25/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%—-0.10%—
10/25/2024Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey    
10/25/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment69.1—68.9—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——62.7—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——72.9—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
10/25/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——-2—
10/28/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-9—-9—
10/29/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.10%—
10/29/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$96.0b—-$94.3b—
10/29/2024Retail Inventories MoM——0.50%—
10/29/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.10%—
10/29/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.27%—
10/29/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——5.92%—
10/29/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.96%—
10/29/2024JOLTS Job Openings——8040k—
10/29/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99—98.7—
10/29/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——124.3—
10/29/2024Conf. Board Expectations——81.7—
10/29/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-2.6—
10/30/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-6.70%—
10/30/2024ADP Employment Change108k—143k—
10/30/2024GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%—3.00%—
10/30/2024Personal Consumption——2.80%—
10/30/2024GDP Price Index——2.50%—
10/30/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ——2.80%—
10/30/2024Pending Home Sales MoM——0.60%—
10/30/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-4.30%—
10/31/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——53.40%—
10/31/2024Employment Cost Index1.00%—0.90%—
10/31/2024Personal Income0.40%—0.20%—
10/31/2024Personal Spending0.40%—0.20%—
10/31/2024Real Personal Spending——0.10%—
10/31/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.10%—
10/31/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.10%—2.20%—
10/31/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%—0.10%—
10/31/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.70%—
10/31/2024Initial Jobless Claims——227k—
10/31/2024Continuing Claims——1897k—
10/31/2024MNI Chicago PMI——46.6—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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