Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

At last, a government economic report has been released despite the ongoing shutdown.

The September CPI report was softer than expected across the board, which is reinforcing market expectations of another Fed rate cut next week. Core CPI rose 0.2% m/m last month versus expectations of a third consecutive 0.3% increase, and both headline and core CPI were up 3% on a year-over-year basis (3.1% expected for both). Much of the downside surprise appears attributable to softer services inflation, including shelter, which is a positive for Fed hawks that have expressed concern over the recent firmness in those metrics. Treasury yields are down 2-3 basis points on the front-end of the curve in the early reaction, a relatively subdued response because the data simply reinforces what the market was already priced for (i.e., rate cuts in October and December). US equity futures are up 40-80 basis points in the initial reaction.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/24/2025Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey   
10/24/2025CPI MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%
10/24/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%
10/24/2025CPI YoY3.10%3.00%2.90%
10/24/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%3.00%3.10%
10/24/2025CPI Index NSA325.027324.8323.976
10/24/2025Core CPI Index SA330.743330.542329.793
10/24/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52
10/24/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.5     —54.2
10/24/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.5     —53.9
10/24/2025New Home Sales Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment54.5     —55
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions60.8     —61
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Expectations50.9     —51.2
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.60%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.70%
10/24/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-9
10/24/2025Building Permits Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/27/2025Durable Goods Orders0.30%     —     —
10/27/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-8.7
10/28/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.07%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.82%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.68%
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-17
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-7
10/28/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.8     —94.2
10/28/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —125.4
10/28/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —73.4
10/28/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-5.6
10/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%
10/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —     —
10/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.0b     —-$85.5b
10/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
10/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —4.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —0.50%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —2.90%
10/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —4.15%
10/29/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.00%
10/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%     —3.80%
10/30/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/30/2025Personal Consumption     —     —2.50%
10/30/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Price Index     —     —2.10%
10/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.60%
10/31/2025Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%
10/31/2025Personal Spending0.40%     —0.60%
10/31/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —0.40%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.70%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.90%
10/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
10/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI42     —40.6

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.