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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are modestly lower to start the day, but benchmark yields remain 15 basis points higher on the week in the belly of the yield curve.

The 5-year yield moved above 4% earlier this week for the first time since July as markets adjust to incoming economic data. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which tracks daily data relative to expectations leading up to the release, has surged over the last few months, implying that the market has become too pessimistic regarding the near-term outlook leading up to the September FOMC meeting. This morning’s data also surpassed expectations. The preliminary look at September durable goods orders showed core orders rising 0.5% versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. Next week’s focus will be on the October jobs report on Friday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/25/2024Durable Goods Orders-1.00%-0.80%0.00%-0.80%
10/25/2024Durables Ex Transportation-0.10%0.40%0.50%0.60%
10/25/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.50%0.30%—
10/25/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.30%-0.10%—
10/25/2024Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/25/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment69—68.9—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions62.6—62.7—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. Expectations73—72.9—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
10/25/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
10/25/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——-2—
10/28/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-9—-9—
10/29/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.10%—
10/29/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$96.0b—-$94.3b—
10/29/2024Retail Inventories MoM——0.50%—
10/29/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.10%—
10/29/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.27%—
10/29/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——5.92%—
10/29/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.96%—
10/29/2024JOLTS Job Openings7900k—8040k—
10/29/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99—98.7—
10/29/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——124.3—
10/29/2024Conf. Board Expectations——81.7—
10/29/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-2.6—
10/30/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-6.70%—
10/30/2024ADP Employment Change98k—143k—
10/30/2024GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%—3.00%—
10/30/2024Personal Consumption——2.80%—
10/30/2024GDP Price Index——2.50%—
10/30/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ——2.80%—
10/30/2024Pending Home Sales MoM——0.60%—
10/30/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-4.30%—
10/31/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——53.40%—
10/31/2024Employment Cost Index0.90%—0.90%—
10/31/2024Personal Income0.40%—0.20%—
10/31/2024Personal Spending0.40%—0.20%—
10/31/2024Real Personal Spending——0.10%—
10/31/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.10%—
10/31/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.10%—2.20%—
10/31/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%—0.10%—
10/31/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.70%—
10/31/2024Initial Jobless Claims——227k—
10/31/2024Continuing Claims——1897k—
10/31/2024MNI Chicago PMI——46.6—
11/1/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls120k—254k—
11/1/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——72k—
11/1/2024Change in Private Payrolls100k—223k—
11/1/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-30k—-7k—
11/1/2024Unemployment Rate4.10%—4.10%—
11/1/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
11/1/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%—4.00%—
11/1/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2—34.2—
11/1/2024Labor Force Participation Rate——62.70%—
11/1/2024Underemployment Rate——7.70%—
11/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——47.8—
11/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.00%—-0.10%—
11/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.6—47.2—
11/1/2024ISM Prices Paid——48.3—
11/1/2024ISM New Orders——46.1—
11/1/2024ISM Employment——43.9—
11/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.75m—15.77m—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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