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Author Jason Haley

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Treasuries are modestly cheaper to start the week following reports of progress in US/China trade talks.

It’s day 27 of the government shutdown, and political analysts suggest this could bleed well into November. In related news, Belin-based Scope Ratings downgraded the US sovereign rating to AA- due to “sustained deterioration in public finances and a weakening of governance standards.” In addition to the major US ratings firms, Scope is the sole European-based credit evaluator used by the European Central Bank to assess collateral. The United States certainly isn’t the only major economy with fiscal and political challenges. Moody’s cut France’s credit outlook to negative from stable for its Aa3 rating, saying the decision “reflects the increased risk that the fragmentation of the country’s political landscape will continue to impair the functioning of France’s legislative institutions.”

On Wednesday, the FOMC is widely expected to announce another 25-basis point rate cut, and based on recent comments from Powell, there is a higher likelihood that the Fed may end its balance sheet reduction efforts in an effort to ease liquidity strains in money markets. The market is fully priced for another rate cut in December, but Fed leaders may be more hesitant to commit to such action with limited economic data available amid the shutdown.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventPeriodSurveyActualPrior
10/27/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown    
10/27/2025Durable Goods Report Delayed by Government Shutdown    
10/27/2025Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityOct-7.8     —-8.7
10/28/2025FHFA House Price Index MoMAug0.00%     —-0.10%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SAAug-0.10%     —-0.07%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSAAug1.40%     —1.82%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSAAug     —     —1.68%
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexOct-10     —-17
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Business ConditionsOct     —     —-7
10/28/2025Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceOct93.4     —94.2
10/28/2025Conf. Board Present SituationOct     —     —125.4
10/28/2025Conf. Board ExpectationsOct     —     —73.4
10/28/2025Dallas Fed Services ActivityOct     —     —-5.6
10/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications24-Oct     —     —-0.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Trade BalanceSep-$90.0b     —-$85.5b
10/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SASep     —     —-1.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SASep     —     —-7.00%
10/29/2025Retail Inventories MoMSep     —     —0.00%
10/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoMSep P-0.20%     —     —
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoMSep2.00%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoYSep     —     —0.50%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)29-Oct4.00%     —4.25%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)29-Oct3.75%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate30-Oct     —     —4.15%
10/29/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate30-Oct     —     —4.00%
10/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims25-Oct229k     —     —
10/30/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg25-Oct     —     —     —
10/30/2025Continuing Claims18-Oct1925k     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3Q A3.00%     —3.80%
10/30/2025Personal Consumption3Q A3.20%     —2.50%
10/30/2025GDP Price Index3Q A2.90%     —2.10%
10/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ3Q A     —     —2.60%
10/31/2025Personal IncomeSep0.40%     —0.40%
10/31/2025Personal SpendingSep0.40%     —0.60%
10/31/2025Real Personal SpendingSep0.20%     —0.40%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index MoMSep0.30%     —0.30%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index YoYSep2.80%     —2.70%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoMSep0.20%     —0.20%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoYSep2.90%     —2.90%
10/31/2025Employment Cost Index3Q0.90%     —0.90%
10/31/2025MNI Chicago PMIOct42.5     —40.6
11/3/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMIOct F     —     —52.2
11/3/2025ISM ManufacturingOct49     —49.1
11/3/2025ISM Prices PaidOct     —     —61.9
11/3/2025ISM New OrdersOct     —     —48.9
11/3/2025ISM EmploymentOct     —     —45.3
11/3/2025Construction Spending MoMSep     —     —     —
11/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle SalesOct     —     —16.39m

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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