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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasuries are little changed following a relatively quiet overnight session.

Later this morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index is expected to show a sixth consecutive monthly decline. Despite the softness this year, the seasonally adjusted index is still up 51% (8.5% annualized) since June 2020. The government will issue $44 billion of new 7-year Treasury notes this afternoon, and the Conference Board will release the results of its consumer confidence survey for October. President Trump said that he may announce his nominee for the next Fed chair by the end of the year. Five finalists for the position were announced yesterday, including current Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, Director of the White House National Economic Council Kevin Hasset, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and Blackrock CIO Rick Rieder. If Trump isn’t satisfied with these five contenders, some are speculating that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could be a frontrunner, although Trump has recently reiterated that he has no plans to make such a move.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/28/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/28/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA-0.10%     —-0.07%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.30%     —1.82%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.68%
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-12     —-17
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-7
10/28/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.4     —94.2
10/28/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —125.4
10/28/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —73.4
10/28/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-5.6
10/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$89.5b     —-$85.5b
10/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
10/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
10/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%
10/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —     —
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoM1.50%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —0.50%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
10/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
10/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —4.15%
10/29/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.00%
10/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims229k     —     —
10/30/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/30/2025Continuing Claims1931k     —     —
10/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%     —3.80%
10/30/2025Personal Consumption3.20%     —2.50%
10/30/2025GDP Price Index2.70%     —2.10%
10/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.00%     —2.60%
10/31/2025Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%
10/31/2025Personal Spending0.40%     —0.60%
10/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.40%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.70%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
10/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%     —0.90%
10/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI42.3     —40.6
11/3/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.2
11/3/2025ISM Manufacturing49     —49.1
11/3/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —61.9
11/3/2025ISM New Orders     —     —48.9
11/3/2025ISM Employment     —     —45.3
11/3/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
11/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales     —     —16.39m
11/4/2025Trade Balance     —     —     —
11/4/2025Exports MoM     —     —     —
11/4/2025Imports MoM     —     —     —
11/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7227k
11/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
11/4/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3091k
11/4/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%
11/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1725k
11/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
11/4/2025Factory Orders     —     —     —
11/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —     —
11/4/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
11/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
11/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
11/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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