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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are continuing yesterday’s selloff, with yields 3 to 4 bps higher across the curve.

The 10-year currently sits at 4.32%, its highest level since early July. The recent march higher has been spurred by the market’s expectations for a Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election. The market seems to view a Trump victory as positive for the stock market in the short run. Additionally, deficits and inflation are also expected to increase, which would put upward pressure on yields.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/29/24Advance Goods Trade Balance-$96.0b-$108.2b-$94.3b
10/29/24Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%-0.10%0.10%
10/29/24Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.80%0.50%
10/29/24FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%—0.10%
10/29/24S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%—0.27%
10/29/24S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.10%—5.92%
10/29/24S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.96%
10/29/24JOLTS Job Openings8000k—8040k
10/29/24Conf. Board Consumer Confidence99.5—98.7
10/29/24Conf. Board Present Situation——124.3
10/29/24Conf. Board Expectations——81.7
10/29/24Dallas Fed Services Activity——-2.6
10/30/24MBA Mortgage Applications——-6.70%
10/30/24ADP Employment Change110k—143k
10/30/24GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%—3.00%
10/30/24Personal Consumption3.30%—2.80%
10/30/24GDP Price Index1.90%—2.50%
10/30/24Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.00%—2.80%
10/30/24Pending Home Sales MoM1.90%—0.60%
10/30/24Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.10%—-4.30%
10/31/24Challenger Job Cuts YoY——53.40%
10/31/24Employment Cost Index0.90%—0.90%
10/31/24Personal Income0.30%—0.20%
10/31/24Personal Spending0.40%—0.20%
10/31/24Real Personal Spending0.30%—0.10%
10/31/24PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.10%
10/31/24PCE Price Index YoY2.10%—2.20%
10/31/24Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%—0.10%
10/31/24Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.70%
10/31/24Initial Jobless Claims230k—227k
10/31/24Continuing Claims1880k—1897k
10/31/24MNI Chicago PMI47—46.6
11/01/24Change in Nonfarm Payrolls110k—254k
11/01/24Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——72k
11/01/24Change in Private Payrolls75k—223k
11/01/24Change in Manufact. Payrolls-30k—-7k
11/01/24Unemployment Rate4.10%—4.10%
11/01/24Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%
11/01/24Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%—4.00%
11/01/24Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2—34.2
11/01/24Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%
11/01/24Underemployment Rate——7.70%
11/01/24S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI47.8—47.8
11/01/24Construction Spending MoM0.00%—-0.10%
11/01/24ISM Manufacturing47.6—47.2
11/01/24ISM Prices Paid——48.3
11/01/24ISM New Orders——46.1
11/01/24ISM Employment——43.9
11/01/24Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m—15.77m

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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