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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields drifted slightly higher overnight after Eurozone PMI data for September was revised higher from previous estimates.

Initial jobless claims ticked up to 225,000 last week, slightly above expectations but still below the multi-month trend. It should be a relatively tame trading session ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report assuming no major non-financial headlines hit (e.g., geopolitical). A queue of container ships is growing outside east coast ports as the dockworker strike enters its third day. The strike impacts shipments of everything from perishable foods to auto parts, and port owners signaled openness to new talks late yesterday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/3/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY—53.40%1.00%—
10/3/2024Initial Jobless Claims221k225k218k219k
10/3/2024Continuing Claims1830k1826k1834k1827k
10/3/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.4—55.4—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI54.4—54.4—
10/3/2024Factory Orders0.10%—5.00%—
10/3/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%—0.40%—
10/3/2024Durable Goods Orders0.00%—0.00%—
10/3/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.50%—0.50%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%—0.20%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.10%—
10/3/2024ISM Services Index51.7—51.5—
10/3/2024ISM Services Prices Paid56—57.3—
10/3/2024ISM Services Employment50—50.2—
10/3/2024ISM Services New Orders52.5—53—
10/4/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls150k—142k—
10/4/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-86k—
10/4/2024Change in Private Payrolls125k—118k—
10/4/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-9k—-24k—
10/4/2024Unemployment Rate4.20%—4.20%—
10/4/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
10/4/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.80%—3.80%—
10/4/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
10/4/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
10/4/2024Underemployment Rate——7.90%—
10/7/2024Consumer Credit$13.400b—$25.452b—
10/7/2024Monthly Budget Statement——-$380.1b-$380.1b
10/8/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism——91.2—
10/8/2024Trade Balance-$72.5b—-$78.8b—
10/9/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-1.30%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——1.10%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
10/9/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
10/10/2024CPI MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/10/2024CPI YoY2.30%—2.50%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Index NSA314.81—314.796—
10/10/2024CPI Core Index SA——319.768—
10/10/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.30%—
10/10/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%—
10/10/2024Initial Jobless Claims——225k—
10/10/2024Continuing Claims——1826k—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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