Front-end yields are 3 to 4 bps higher following the release of strong economic data earlier this morning.
Third quarter GDP rose by 2.9% annualized pace, exceeding economist expectations of +2.8%. The ADP report showed private payrolls increasing by 233,000 last month, significantly surpassing the forecasted 111,000 increase. Consumer spending rose by 3.7% last quarter, its quickest pace since early 2023. Education and health services posted the strongest gains in the ADP report, while the manufacturing sector was the only one to post losses.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 10/30/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.10% | -6.70% |
| 10/30/24 | ADP Employment Change | 111k | 233k | 143k |
| 10/30/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.90% | 2.80% | 3.00% |
| 10/30/24 | Personal Consumption | 3.30% | 3.70% | 2.80% |
| 10/30/24 | GDP Price Index | 1.90% | 1.80% | 2.50% |
| 10/30/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.10% | 2.20% | 2.80% |
| 10/30/24 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.90% | — | 0.60% |
| 10/30/24 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -1.10% | — | -4.30% |
| 10/31/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 53.40% |
| 10/31/24 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% |
| 10/31/24 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 10/31/24 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.20% |
| 10/31/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 10/31/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 10/31/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.10% | — | 2.20% |
| 10/31/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 10/31/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.70% |
| 10/31/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 227k |
| 10/31/24 | Continuing Claims | 1880k | — | 1897k |
| 10/31/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 47 | — | 46.6 |
| 11/01/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 110k | — | 254k |
| 11/01/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 72k |
| 11/01/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 70k | — | 223k |
| 11/01/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -30k | — | -7k |
| 11/01/24 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% |
| 11/01/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 11/01/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.00% |
| 11/01/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 |
| 11/01/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% |
| 11/01/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.70% |
| 11/01/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47.8 | — | 47.8 |
| 11/01/24 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.10% |
| 11/01/24 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.6 | — | 47.2 |
| 11/01/24 | ISM Prices Paid | 49.3 | — | 48.3 |
| 11/01/24 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 46.1 |
| 11/01/24 | ISM Employment | — | — | 43.9 |
| 11/01/24 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.80m | — | 15.77m |
