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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower as the market digests several data releases this morning.

Personal spending was higher than expected in September, but yesterday’s Q3 GDP report and the earlier retail sales data implied as much. Personal income growth was in line with expectations, rising 0.3% m/m in September. Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, as expected, and on a year-over-year basis, core PCE was up 2.7%, slightly higher than expected. Separately, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 12,000 last week to 216,000 (230,000 expected). This is the lowest reading for weekly claims since mid-May. Offsetting these surprises was the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which rose 0.8% q/q vs. expectations of a 0.9% increase. This was the lowest reading for ECI since Q2 2021. ECI is a more comprehensive measure of wage inflation that tracks bonuses and other benefits, making it a preferred metric of the Fed.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/31/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY—50.90%53.40%—
10/31/2024Employment Cost Index0.90%0.80%0.90%—
10/31/2024Personal Income0.30%0.30%0.20%—
10/31/2024Personal Spending0.40%0.50%0.20%0.30%
10/31/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%0.10%0.20%
10/31/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%—
10/31/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.10%2.10%2.20%2.30%
10/31/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.10%0.20%
10/31/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.60%2.70%2.70%—
10/31/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k216k227k228k
10/31/2024Continuing Claims1880k1862k1897k1888k
10/31/2024MNI Chicago PMI47—46.6—
11/1/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls101k—254k—
11/1/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——72k—
11/1/2024Change in Private Payrolls70k—223k—
11/1/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-30k—-7k—
11/1/2024Unemployment Rate4.10%—4.10%—
11/1/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
11/1/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%—4.00%—
11/1/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2—34.2—
11/1/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
11/1/2024Underemployment Rate——7.70%—
11/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI47.8—47.8—
11/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.00%—-0.10%—
11/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.6—47.2—
11/1/2024ISM Prices Paid50—48.3—
11/1/2024ISM New Orders——46.1—
11/1/2024ISM Employment——43.9—
11/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m—15.77m—
11/4/2024Factory Orders-0.50%—-0.20%—
11/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——-0.10%—
11/4/2024Durable Goods Orders——-0.80%—
11/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.40%—
11/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.50%—
11/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.30%—
11/5/2024Trade Balance-$73.5b—-$70.4b—
11/5/2024ISM Services Index53.3—54.9—
11/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——59.4—
11/5/2024ISM Services Employment——48.1—
11/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——59.4—
11/6/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-0.10%—
11/6/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——55.3—
11/6/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.3—
11/7/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.30%—2.50%—
11/7/2024Unit Labor Costs1.00%—0.40%—
11/7/2024Initial Jobless Claims——216k—
11/7/2024Continuing Claims——1862k—
11/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——-0.10%—
11/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——-0.10%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.75%—5.00%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
11/7/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——4.90%—
11/7/2024Consumer Credit$13.450b—$8.929b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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