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Author Jason Haley

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The post-payrolls selloff momentum in Treasuries continued overnight in Asia, and yields are opening the week up 6-8 basis points on the front end of the curve.

The 2-year/10-year spread has flattened 12 basis points since Friday morning as back close to a zero spread between the two tenors. Additionally, fed funds futures are now just pricing for two 25-basis point rate cuts across the final two FOMC meetings of 2024. The September CPI report headlines this week’s calendar on Thursday, and there will be several Fed leaders speaking this week, including four this afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.000b—$25.452b—
10/7/2024Monthly Budget Statement$4.3b—-$380.1b—
10/8/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism92—91.2—
10/8/2024Trade Balance-$70.5b—-$78.8b—
10/9/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-1.30%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%—1.10%—
10/9/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
10/10/2024CPI MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/10/2024CPI YoY2.30%—2.50%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Index NSA314.869—314.796—
10/10/2024CPI Core Index SA——319.768—
10/10/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.30%1.40%
10/10/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%1.00%
10/10/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k—225k—
10/10/2024Continuing Claims1832k—1826k—
10/11/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/11/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%—1.70%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%—2.40%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment70.5—70.1—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions64.5—63.3—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75—74.4—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.10%—
10/14/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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