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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is modestly steeper, with yields pivoting 1-2 basis points higher for 5-year and longer maturities.

Recent Fedspeak has expressed guidance for a more ‘balanced approach’ (Kugler) to future cuts, which should happen ‘over time’ (Williams). Pricing in fed funds futures through the end of 2025 has risen nearly 50 basis points since the beginning of the month, with the YE 2025 funds rate priced this morning to 3.37%. That matches the median FOMC participant forecast from the September 18 meeting. In global news, China’s stock market surge pulled back somewhat today after government officials held off on unveiling additional fiscal stimulus plans. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 9.4%, its worst day since October 2008, and the blue-chip CSI 300 index closed 5.9% higher after trading up as much as 10.8% earlier in the day.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/8/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism9291.591.2—
10/8/2024Trade Balance-$70.5b-$70.4b-$78.8b-$78.9b
10/8/2024Monthly Budget Statement-$21.5b—-$380.1b—
10/9/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-1.30%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%—1.10%—
10/9/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
10/10/2024CPI MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/10/2024CPI YoY2.30%—2.50%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Index NSA314.884—314.796—
10/10/2024CPI Core Index SA——319.768—
10/10/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.30%1.40%
10/10/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%1.00%
10/10/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k—225k—
10/10/2024Continuing Claims1830k—1826k—
10/11/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/11/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%—1.70%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%—2.40%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment71—70.1—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions64.5—63.3—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75—74.4—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.10%—
10/14/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
10/15/2024Empire Manufacturing0.5—11.5—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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