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Author Jason Haley

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Intermediate and long-end Treasury yields are drifting slightly higher this morning amid a modest risk-on tone in markets overnight. 

The recent sell-off in benchmark yields has also pushed mortgage rates higher for the first time in several weeks. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 5.1% last week, driven by a 9.3% decline in refinance applications. According to the MBA survey, this coincided with a 22-basis point increase in the average 30-year conventional contract rate to 6.36%. The average 15-year contract rate rose 20 basis points to 5.71%. Later today, the September 18 FOMC minutes will be released, and tomorrow morning, the September core CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% m/m (3.2% y/y).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/9/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—-5.10%-1.30%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
10/9/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%—1.10%—
10/9/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
10/10/2024CPI MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/10/2024CPI YoY2.30%—2.50%—
10/10/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.20%—
10/10/2024CPI Index NSA314.891—314.796—
10/10/2024CPI Core Index SA320.59—319.768—
10/10/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.30%1.40%
10/10/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%1.00%
10/10/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k—225k—
10/10/2024Continuing Claims1830k—1826k—
10/11/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.20%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/11/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%—1.70%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%—2.40%—
10/11/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment71—70.1—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions64.3—63.3—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. Expectations74.9—74.4—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
10/11/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.10%—
10/14/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
10/15/2024Empire Manufacturing0—11.5—
10/15/2024Monthly Budget Statement$4.3b—-$380.1b—
10/16/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.10%—
10/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——0.5—
10/16/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.30%—-0.30%—
10/16/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM——-0.10%—
10/16/2024Import Price Index YoY——0.80%—
10/16/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.30%—-0.70%—
10/16/2024Export Price Index YoY——-0.70%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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