Beyond the Headlines

Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points lower after the Swiss central bank surprised markets with the first rate cut (25 basis points) of the current cycle by an advanced economy. The general perception of yesterday’s FOMC meeting was that it was dovish, but to be fair,...

Treasuries are little changed ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC announcement. In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde effectively confirmed plans for an initial rate cut in June but said they can’t yet commit to a path of rate cuts after the first one. For today’s...

Front-end Treasuries are modestly lower following what was perceived as dovish (or less hawkish) results from the central banks of Australia and Japan. The former removed its hiking bias guidance but was not yet ready to signal a pivot to rate cuts. The Bank of Japan...

Treasuries are little changed to begin a week packed with central bank decisions. In addition to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, five other central banks will be holding policy meetings this week, including Japan and the U.K. For the FOMC meeting, the updated Summary...

Yields are slightly higher on the front-end of the curve following this week’s slate of inflation data. The 2-year through 5-year point are up 3 basis points (bps), while the long-end is up 1 to 2 bps. Equity futures are mixed, as the S&P 500 is in negative...

February PPI exceeded all expectations while retail sales came in lower than forecast. Prices paid to US producers increased by 0.6% m/m vs the median forecast of 0.3%, on y/y basis it was up 1.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% vs 0.2%...

Treasury yields are 2 to 3 bps higher this morning following yesterday's CPI print. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose by 7.1% last week as the 30-year conforming rate fell below 7% for the first time in a month, down to 6.84%. Purchase applications rose by 4.7%...

The February CPI report showed core inflation rising more than expected (0.4% vs. 0.3%), although the figure was 0.358% on an unrounded basis. The so-called “supercore” metric, which subtracts housing from core services, rose 0.47% m/m in February following the prior...

Treasury yields are little changed to start the week following a quiet overnight session. There are no major data releases today, but the major economic event for this week is tomorrow’s CPI report for February. Additionally, wholesale inflation data (PPI) will be...

Nonfarm payrolls added 275,000 jobs in February, 75,000 more than expected. However, other metrics within the report were softer. For payrolls growth, there was a 167,000 downward revision to the prior two months’ job growth (mostly the January figure). Additionally,...

Treasury yields are starting the day 2-3 basis points lower following strong government bond auctions in France and Spain overnight. Fed Chair Powell stuck to the script yesterday and didn’t appear to express a more hawkish tone in response to the January CPI and jobs...

Treasuries are little changed ahead of the January JOLTS report and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress. Regarding the former, job openings are expected to have fallen from 9.026 million to 8.85 million in January. Powell’s prepared remarks for...

Treasury yields are 4-6 basis points lower across the curve to start the day with no major catalysts for the rally overnight. Composite PMI data (services and manufacturing) for the Eurozone improved in February, although still in contractionary territory at 49.2....

It’s a quiet start to what should be a busy week for financial markets. Treasury yields are up 4 basis points in parallel fashion across the curve, taking back some of Friday’s rally. Market catalysts for this week will be the January JOLTS report (Wednesday), Fed...

New York Community Bank (NYCB) shares were down as much as 32% in pre-market trading after disclosing that it identified material weakness in its internal controls related to loan review. In addition, CEO Thomas Cangemi resigned his position, ending a 27-year career...

Treasuries are little changed on the day following the release of a January PCE report that was in line with expectations. Core PCE rose 0.4% last month, the biggest monthly increase in 12 months but on top of consensus expectations prior to the release. On a...

The second estimate of fourth quarter GDP came in slightly lower than expected at 3.2% vs the median forecast of 3.3%. Spending on services was revised higher but was offset by downward revisions to spending on goods as well as inventories. Presidents of the Atlanta,...

Yields are 1 to 2 bps lower this morning following yesterday's mild selloff while equity futures are mixed. Durable goods (items expected to last at least three years) orders fell more in January than expected, declining by 6.1% vs the median forecast of -5.0%. Core...

Rates are essentially unchanged this morning and equity futures are just slightly in the red. This week is a heavy one for data with 4Q GDP out on Wednesday and PCE out on Thursday. The median forecast calls for a 3.3% GDP reading and a 2.7% reading for PCE. There’s...

It was a quiet overnight session with Japanese markets closed for holiday, and with a bare domestic economic calendar, it should be a relatively uneventful day for fixed income markets. Treasury yields are little changed at the moment. Multiple Fed leaders spoke...