Treasuries are little changed this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session.
Late yesterday, a Fed report showed that consumer borrowing rose $25.5 billion in July, the highest monthly increase since November 2022. Revolving credit rose $10.6 billion, the most in five months, and non-revolving debt (autos, student loans, etc.) rose $14.8 billion. One must always be careful making too much out of a single economic data point. That said, monthly personal income and spending data for much of 2024 has suggested that consumers have been outspending income growth by a decent margin. With the bulk of the excess liquidity from Covid stimulus exhausted, a bigger increase in consumer credit makes reasonable sense and could potentially foreshadow a slowdown in personal consumption in the coming months barring a significant increase in income growth.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 9/10/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 93.6 | 91.2 | 93.7 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 314.826 | — | 314.54 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 318.872 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.70% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 227k | — | 227k | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1850k | — | 1838k | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $5117b | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$276.0b | — | -$243.7b | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.90% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68.3 | — | 67.9 | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 61.5 | — | 61.3 | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 71.3 | — | 72.1 | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.70% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 9/16/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | -4 | — | -4.7 | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | 1.8 | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | Business Inventories | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 9/17/2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index | — | — | 39 | — |
