Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Front-end Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower following the release of the August PPI report.

Wholesale prices rose less than expected across most categories last month, with the headline figures actually declining 0.1% m/m (+0.3% expected). The components of PPI that feed into PCE suggest that the consumer price metric released later this month will come in at 0.3% m/m again according to some economist estimates. In Fed news, a federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Justice Department is expected to swiftly appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court, but it is unlikely to be decided prior to next week’s FOMC meeting. Later today, the government will auction $39 billion 10-year Treasury notes.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —9.20%-1.20%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%-0.10%0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%-0.10%0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.30%0.60%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.30%2.60%3.30%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.50%2.80%3.70%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —2.80%2.80%
9/10/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%     —0.30%
9/10/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
9/11/2025CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI YoY2.90%     —2.70%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%
9/11/2025CPI Index NSA323.921     —323.048
9/11/2025CPI Core Index SA329.64     —328.656
9/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%
9/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.40%
9/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims235k     —237k
9/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —231.00k
9/11/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —1940k
9/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —-$1595b
9/11/2025Federal Budget Balance-$324.5b     —-$380.1b
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment58     —58.2
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions62     —61.7
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Expectations56     —55.9
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%     —4.80%
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.50%
9/15/2025Empire Manufacturing4.9     —11.9
9/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.50%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.30%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%     —0.20%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%
9/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-11.7
9/16/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
9/16/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.30%
9/16/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —-0.20%
9/16/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%
9/16/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.20%
9/16/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —-0.10%
9/16/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%
9/16/2025Capacity Utilization77.40%     —77.50%
9/16/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.20%
9/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —32
9/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —9.20%
9/17/2025Housing Starts1375k     —1428k
9/17/2025Building Permits1370k     —1362k
9/17/2025Housing Starts MoM-3.70%     —5.20%
9/17/2025Building Permits MoM0.60%     —-2.20%
9/17/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.25%     —4.50%
9/17/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
9/17/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —4.40%
9/17/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.25%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.88%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.63%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.38%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs     —     —3.13%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.00%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.