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Author Jason Haley

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Core CPI surprised to the upside in August, rising 0.3% m/m versus 0.2% m/m expected.

Year-over-year, the core rate held steady at 3.2%. The higher core reading came as shelter inflation accelerated for a second consecutive month, with owners’ equivalent rent up a hefty 0.5% m/m. This followed a 0.4% increase the prior month and was the highest monthly increase in OER since January. Inflation reports have taken second billing to the monthly jobs reports from a market perspective, but Treasury yields are up 6-9 basis points (bps) on the front end of the curve in the initial reaction. In other news, the MBA mortgage activity index showed the average conventional 30-year contract rate falling 14 bps to 6.29%, the lowest since February 2023, but mortgage applications activity was still relatively muted. Purchase applications rose 1.8% last week, while refinance applications rose just 0.9% versus the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—1.40%1.60%—
9/11/2024CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%—
9/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%—
9/11/2024CPI YoY2.50%2.50%2.90%—
9/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%3.20%3.20%—
9/11/2024CPI Index NSA314.847314.796314.54—
9/11/2024CPI Core Index SA319.568319.768318.872—
9/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.30%0.70%—
9/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.90%0.40%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.10%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.00%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.30%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.70%—2.20%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%—2.40%—
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.30%—
9/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims227k—227k—
9/12/2024Continuing Claims1850k—1838k—
9/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$5117b—
9/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement-$300.0b—-$243.7b—
9/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.10%—
9/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/13/2024Import Price Index YoY0.90%—1.60%—
9/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.10%—0.70%—
9/13/2024Export Price Index YoY——1.40%—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment68.3—67.9—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions61.5—61.3—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Expectations71.3—72.1—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.80%—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
9/16/2024Empire Manufacturing-4—-4.7—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%—1.00%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.40%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%—0.40%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.30%—
9/17/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——1.8—
9/17/2024Industrial Production MoM0.10%—-0.60%—
9/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.90%—77.80%—
9/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.20%—-0.30%—
9/17/2024Business Inventories0.40%—0.30%—
9/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index——39—
9/18/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——1.40%—
9/18/2024Building Permits1418k—1396k1396k
9/18/2024Housing Starts1310k—1238k—
9/18/2024Housing Starts MoM5.80%—-6.80%—
9/18/2024Building Permits MoM1.40%—-4.00%-3.30%
9/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.25%—5.50%—
9/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.00%—5.25%—
9/18/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——5.40%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr——5.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr——4.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs——3.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs————
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run——2.75%—
9/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$107.5b—
9/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$96.1b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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