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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasuries have fluctuated between positive and negative territory this morning, with yields currently slightly lower on the day.

The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut today, as widely expected, and markets shift now to ECB President Lagarde’s press conference for any hints as to what the central bank may do in October. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 230,000 last week, holding essentially in the recent range. Producer prices exceeded expectations by a tenth in August, with the core rate rising 0.3% m/m.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.20%0.10%0.00%
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.00%-0.20%
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%—
9/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY1.70%1.70%2.20%2.10%
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%2.40%2.30%
9/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY—3.30%3.30%3.20%
9/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims226k230k227k228k
9/12/2024Continuing Claims1850k1850k1838k1845k
9/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$5117b—
9/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement-$292.5b-$380.1b-$243.7b—
9/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.10%—
9/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/13/2024Import Price Index YoY0.90%—1.60%—
9/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.70%—
9/13/2024Export Price Index YoY1.40%—1.40%—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment68.5—67.9—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions61.5—61.3—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. Expectations72.1—72.1—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.80%—
9/13/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
9/16/2024Empire Manufacturing-4—-4.7—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%—1.00%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.40%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.40%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.30%—
9/17/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——1.8—
9/17/2024Industrial Production MoM0.10%—-0.60%—
9/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.90%—77.80%—
9/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.20%—-0.30%—
9/17/2024Business Inventories0.40%—0.30%—
9/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index40—39—
9/18/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——1.40%—
9/18/2024Building Permits1418k—1396k1396k
9/18/2024Housing Starts1311k—1238k—
9/18/2024Housing Starts MoM5.90%—-6.80%—
9/18/2024Building Permits MoM1.40%—-4.00%-3.30%
9/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.25%—5.50%—
9/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.00%—5.25%—
9/18/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——5.40%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr——5.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr——4.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs——3.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs————
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run——2.75%—
9/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$107.5b—
9/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$96.1b—
9/19/2024Current Account Balance-$262.0b—-$237.6b—
9/19/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook3—-7—
9/19/2024Initial Jobless Claims——230k—
9/19/2024Continuing Claims——1850k—
9/19/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.60%—
9/19/2024Existing Home Sales3.90m—3.95m—
9/19/2024Existing Home Sales MoM-1.10%—1.30%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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