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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 2-4 basis points higher to start the day with some likely profit taking from some investors following yesterday’s rally.

There were no major headlines overnight and focus now shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting. A 25-basis point cut is fully priced in at this point, and yesterday’s data provided fuel for both the doves more worried about labor market risk and the hawks more concerned with lingering inflation risk. Later this morning, the preliminary results of the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released, which is expected to be little changed from the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventPeriodSurveyActualPrior
9/12/2025U. of Mich. SentimentSep P58     —58.2
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Current ConditionsSep P62     —61.7
9/12/2025U. of Mich. ExpectationsSep P56.2     —55.9
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationSep P4.80%     —4.80%
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationSep P3.40%     —3.50%
9/15/2025Empire ManufacturingSep4.3     —11.9
9/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoMAug0.20%     —0.50%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMAug0.40%     —0.30%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasAug0.50%     —0.20%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Control GroupAug0.30%     —0.50%
9/16/2025New York Fed Services Business ActivitySep     —     —-11.7
9/16/2025Import Price Index MoMAug-0.30%     —0.40%
9/16/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMAug     —     —0.30%
9/16/2025Import Price Index YoYAug     —     —-0.20%
9/16/2025Export Price Index MoMAug0.10%     —0.10%
9/16/2025Export Price Index YoYAug     —     —2.20%
9/16/2025Industrial Production MoMAug0.00%     —-0.10%
9/16/2025Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionAug-0.40%     —0.00%
9/16/2025Capacity UtilizationAug77.40%     —77.50%
9/16/2025Business InventoriesJul0.20%     —0.20%
9/16/2025NAHB Housing Market IndexSep33     —32
9/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications12-Sep     —     —9.20%
9/17/2025Housing StartsAug1370k     —1428k
9/17/2025Building PermitsAug P1370k     —1362k
9/17/2025Housing Starts MoMAug-4.10%     —5.20%
9/17/2025Building Permits MoMAug P0.60%     —-2.20%
9/17/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)17-Sep4.25%     —4.50%
9/17/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)17-Sep4.00%     —4.25%
9/17/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate18-Sep     —     —4.40%
9/17/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate18-Sep     —     —4.25%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr17-Sep     —     —3.88%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr17-Sep     —     —3.63%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs17-Sep     —     —3.38%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs17-Sep     —     —3.13%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run17-Sep     —     —3.00%
9/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims13-Sep     —     —263k
9/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg13-Sep     —     —240.50k
9/18/2025Continuing Claims6-Sep     —     —1939k
9/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business OutlookSep3     —-0.3
9/18/2025Leading IndexAug-0.10%     —-0.10%
9/18/2025Net Long-term TIC FlowsJul     —     —$150.8b
9/18/2025Total Net TIC FlowsJul     —     —$77.8b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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