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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

It was a quiet overnight session with Japan closed for holiday.

Treasury yields are opening 1-3 basis points lower this morning, and U.S. equity futures are modestly higher ahead of the open. The focus for markets this week is clearly the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. While there has been some speculation of whether the Fed may go for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut this week, the market remains more firmly priced for 25 basis points. The FOMC will also be releasing an updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will provide color on the range of outlooks of the various committee participants as it relates to economic metrics and the path of the fed funds rate. It will also be worth paying attention to initial jobless claims on Thursday. The measure of first-time unemployment claims popped last week to 263,000, the highest since October 2024. However, it was a holiday week, and there was an unusually large increase for claims reported in Texas, both of which can be signs of a one-week anomaly.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/15/2025Empire Manufacturing5-8.711.9
9/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.50%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.30%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%     —0.20%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%
9/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-11.7
9/16/2025Import Price Index MoM-0.20%     —0.40%
9/16/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.30%
9/16/2025Import Price Index YoY0.00%     —-0.20%
9/16/2025Export Price Index MoM-0.10%     —0.10%
9/16/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.20%
9/16/2025Industrial Production MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
9/16/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.30%     —0.00%
9/16/2025Capacity Utilization77.40%     —77.50%
9/16/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.20%
9/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index33     —32
9/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —9.20%
9/17/2025Housing Starts1365k     —1428k
9/17/2025Building Permits1370k     —1362k
9/17/2025Housing Starts MoM-4.40%     —5.20%
9/17/2025Building Permits MoM0.60%     —-2.20%
9/17/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.25%     —4.50%
9/17/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.00%     —4.25%
9/17/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.15%     —4.40%
9/17/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —4.25%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.88%     —3.88%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.63%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.38%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
9/17/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%
9/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims240k     —263k
9/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.50k
9/18/2025Continuing Claims1948k     —1939k
9/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1.5     —-0.3
9/18/2025Leading Index-0.20%     —-0.10%
9/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$150.8b
9/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$77.8b
9/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.19

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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