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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are leaking higher and steeper this morning with oil prices modestly higher as well.

The 10-year yield is back above 5%, and US equity futures are slightly lower an hour before the open. Less attention has been paid to the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, which is now at 2.62% (highest since October 2008). This is an inflation-adjusted (real) yield, and it has risen more than 70 basis points so far in 2026. The economic calendar is relatively light again today ahead of tomorrow’s busyness. Market pricing for a Fed rate hike tomorrow has firmed further in the fed funds futures market, now at 94% implied probability.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/15/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —16.250k12.000k12.250k
9/15/2026Empire Manufacturing157.620.6     —
9/16/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.70%     —
9/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity-2.1     —0.5     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%     —-0.60%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%     —-0.30%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —-0.20%     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.50%     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index MoM0.50%     —-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index YoY6.40%     —5.90%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index MoM0.50%     —-1.30%     —
9/16/2026Export Price Index YoY8.40%     —8.20%     —
9/16/2026Business Inventories0.80%     —0.00%     —
9/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —35     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —3.65%     —
9/16/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.75%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.88%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.88%     —3.63%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.38%     —3.38%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.38%     —     —     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.06%     —
9/16/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$133.5b     —
9/16/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$172.7b     —
9/17/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook32.5     —47.4     —
9/17/2026Initial Jobless Claims207k     —206k     —
9/17/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.00k     —
9/17/2026Continuing Claims1780k     —1774k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts1319k     —1239k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts MoM6.70%     —-12.40%     —
9/17/2026Building Permits1405k     —1433k     —
9/17/2026Building Permits MoM-1.50%     —4.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%     —-2.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-5.00%     —-2.50%     —
9/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
9/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.20%     —
9/21/2026Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Event    
9/21/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.08     —
9/22/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k     —
9/22/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-10.6     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —4     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-12     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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