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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Front-end Treasury yields are another 4 basis points (bps) lower following the release of an August retail sales report that was largely in line with expectations.

The headline sales figure was up 0.1% m/m versus expectations of a 0.2% decline, and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.3% m/m, as expected. Additionally, the July control group figure was revised 10 bps higher to 0.4% m/m. Tracking a 3-month annualized average, the control group trend has risen from 0.8% in February to 6.4% through August. Personal income and spending data over much of 2024 suggests consumers are outspending income growth at a decent clip, particularly when considering that the excess liquidity from the Covid stimulus era has largely been exhausted for most income brackets given robust consumption and cumulative inflation effects. This has led many economists to forecast a slowdown in consumption (and overall economic growth) in the second half of 2024, but it doesn’t appear to have begun just yet.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%0.10%1.00%1.10%
9/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.10%0.40%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.20%0.40%—
9/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.30%0.30%0.40%
9/17/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity—0.51.8—
9/17/2024Industrial Production MoM0.20%—-0.60%—
9/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.90%—77.80%—
9/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%—-0.30%—
9/17/2024Business Inventories0.30%—0.30%—
9/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index41—39—
9/18/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——1.40%—
9/18/2024Housing Starts1318k—1238k—
9/18/2024Building Permits1412k—1396k1396k
9/18/2024Housing Starts MoM6.50%—-6.80%—
9/18/2024Building Permits MoM1.10%—-4.00%-3.30%
9/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.25%—5.50%—
9/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.00%—5.25%—
9/18/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate5.15%—5.40%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr4.63%—5.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.63%—4.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs2.88%—3.13%—
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs2.88%———
9/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run2.80%—2.75%—
9/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$107.5b—
9/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$96.1b—
9/19/2024Current Account Balance-$260.0b—-$237.6b—
9/19/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1—-7—
9/19/2024Initial Jobless Claims230k—230k—
9/19/2024Continuing Claims1853k—1850k—
9/19/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.60%—
9/19/2024Existing Home Sales3.90m—3.95m—
9/19/2024Existing Home Sales MoM-1.30%—1.30%—
9/23/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.34—
9/23/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——47.9—
9/23/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——55.7—
9/23/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.6—
9/24/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-25.1—
9/24/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——-0.10%—
9/24/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.42%—
9/24/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——5.42%—
9/24/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——6.47%—
9/24/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence102.7—103.3—
9/24/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——134.4—
9/24/2024Conf. Board Expectations——82.5—
9/24/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-19—
9/24/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-13—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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