Treasury yields are little changed ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision.
The FOMC is widely expected to announce a 25-basis point rate cut today, but beyond the rate decision, market participants will be focused on any forward guidance provided by Jerome Powell and the updated Summary of Economic Projections. Housing starts fell 8.5% in August to a 1.312-million-unit annual pace, including a 7% decline in single-family starts and 11.7% decline in multifamily starts. Single-family starts slowed to a 890,000-unit annual pace, the slowest since July 2024. The MBA mortgage activity index surged 30% last week, fueled by a 58% increase in refinance applications. The increase in refi activity coincides with a 25-basis point decline in the average 30-year conventional contract rate over a 2-week period, according to the survey. Additionally, the MBA’s refinance index is now at the highest since March 2022, just before the Fed initiated its extraordinary rate-hike cycle.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 9/17/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 29.70% | 9.20% |
| 9/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1365k | 1307k | 1428k |
| 9/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1370k | 1312k | 1362k |
| 9/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | -4.40% | -8.50% | 5.20% |
| 9/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 0.60% | -3.70% | -2.20% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.50% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.00% | — | 4.25% |
| 9/17/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.15% | — | 4.40% |
| 9/17/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 4.25% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 3.88% | — | 3.88% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.38% | — | 3.63% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 3.38% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 3.13% |
| 9/17/2025 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 3.00% | — | 3.00% |
| 9/18/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 240k | — | 263k |
| 9/18/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 240.50k |
| 9/18/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1950k | — | 1939k |
| 9/18/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 1.9 | — | -0.3 |
| 9/18/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 9/18/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $150.8b |
| 9/18/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $77.8b |
| 9/22/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.19 |
| 9/23/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -17.5 |
| 9/23/2025 | Current Account Balance | — | — | -$450.2b |
| 9/23/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 53 |
| 9/23/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.5 |
| 9/23/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.6 |
| 9/23/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -7 |
| 9/23/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 6 |
| 9/24/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 29.70% |
| 9/24/2025 | New Home Sales | 655k | — | 652k |
| 9/24/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | -0.60% |
| 9/24/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1312k |
| 9/24/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -3.70% |
