The much (overly) anticipated FOMC announcement day has arrived.
Ever since Fed Chair Powell sealed the deal on the first rate cut today during his August 23 Jackson Hole speech, there has been a hot debate in financial markets over whether the first move will be a 25- or a 50-basis point cut. Fed funds futures have skewed more toward the latter in recent days, pricing for 42 basis points as of this morning. A smaller 0.25% cut would presumably spark a selloff in Treasuries and stocks, but it’s never quite that simple. If the market perceives that a smaller (and more normal) cut comes with more dovish guidance, the reaction could be more muted. There has been criticism of how Fed leaders have handled the communication of it its intentions for today in recent weeks, but it’s a moot point now. Much has apparently changed in the three months since the June FOMC meeting when the last “dot plot” was released. At that time,11 of the 19 FOMC participants forecasted that the Fed would have 0-25 basis points of rate cuts in 2024. Fresh projections will be released today, which should provide a clearer look at just how dovish the committee members have shifted.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 9/18/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 14.20% | 1.40% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | Housing Starts | 1318k | 1356k | 1238k | 1237k |
| 9/18/2024 | Housing Starts MoM | 6.50% | 9.60% | -6.80% | -6.90% |
| 9/18/2024 | Building Permits | 1410k | 1475k | 1396k | 1406k |
| 9/18/2024 | Building Permits MoM | 1.00% | 4.90% | -4.00% | -3.30% |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.00% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.15% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 4.63% | — | 5.13% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.63% | — | 4.13% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 2.88% | — | 3.13% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs | 2.88% | — | — | — |
| 9/18/2024 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 2.84% | — | 2.75% | — |
| 9/18/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $107.5b | — |
| 9/18/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $96.1b | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Current Account Balance | -$260.0b | — | -$237.6b | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 0 | — | -7 | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 230k | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1850k | — | 1850k | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Existing Home Sales | 3.90m | — | 3.95m | — |
| 9/19/2024 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 9/23/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.2 | — | -0.34 | — |
| 9/23/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 47.9 | — |
| 9/23/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 55.7 | — |
| 9/23/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 9/24/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25.1 | — |
| 9/24/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 9/24/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.42% | — |
| 9/24/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 5.42% | — |
| 9/24/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 6.47% | — |
| 9/24/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 102.7 | — | 103.3 | — |
| 9/24/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.4 | — |
| 9/24/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 82.5 | — |
| 9/24/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -19 | — |
| 9/24/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -13 | — |
| 9/25/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 14.20% | — |
| 9/25/2024 | New Home Sales | 698k | — | 739k | — |
| 9/25/2024 | New Home Sales MoM | -5.60% | — | 10.60% | — |
