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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are little changed as the market digests this morning’s data and yesterday’s Fed decision.

Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 231,000 last week after surging to 264,000 the prior week, suggesting the prior week was more likely a one-off anomaly than a sign of a new paradigm in the labor market. Continuing claims were also lower than expected.

The Fed moved forward with a 25-basis point cut yesterday, and there was plenty for the market to dig through in assessing the path forward. On the margin, most everything released yesterday shifted more dovish. New language in the official statement said “downside risks to employment have risen,” and the median forecast for the fed funds rate at year-end showed an additional rate cut in 2026 (2 more this year) relative to the last update in June. Again, marginally more dovish but not a significant shift. Treasuries initially rallied before reversing course after the Powell press conference began. Powell characterized the policy decision as a “risk management cut,” another way to essentially say it was an insurance move in the event the labor market may be weakening at a more notable pace. He didn’t express any concerns of the economy being on the verge of imminent recession and effectively maintained a “meeting by meeting” stance for future rate cut decisions.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims240k231k263k
9/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —240.00k240.50k
9/18/2025Continuing Claims1950k1920k1939k
9/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1.723.2-0.3
9/18/2025Leading Index-0.20%     —-0.10%
9/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$150.8b
9/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$77.8b
9/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.19
9/23/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-17.5
9/23/2025Current Account Balance     —     —-$450.2b
9/23/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53
9/23/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —54.5
9/23/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
9/23/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-7
9/23/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —6
9/24/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —29.70%
9/24/2025New Home Sales655k     —652k
9/24/2025New Home Sales MoM0.50%     —-0.60%
9/24/2025Building Permits     —     —1312k
9/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —-3.70%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$95.6b     —-$103.6b
9/25/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-0.10%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —7.10%
9/25/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.10%
9/25/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
9/25/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%     —3.30%
9/25/2025Personal Consumption     —     —1.60%
9/25/2025GDP Price Index     —     —2.00%
9/25/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.50%
9/25/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.80%     —-2.80%
9/25/2025Durables Ex Transportation-0.20%     —1.00%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.10%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
9/25/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —231k
9/25/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.00k
9/25/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1920k
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales3.98m     —4.01m
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-0.80%     —2.00%
9/25/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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