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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting 2-3 basis points higher in a continuation of yesterday’s market move.

It should be a relatively quiet end to a busy week with no economic data scheduled to be released today. Recently appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran will appear on CNBC at 11am ET today. Miran, who is on temporary leave as Trump’s chief economic advisor, was the lone dissenting vote for Wednesday’s FOMC decision, preferring a larger 50-basis point cut, and he was likely the one participant forecasting 3 consecutive 50-basis point cuts through the end of this year in updated “dot plot.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.19
9/23/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-17.5
9/23/2025Current Account Balance     —     —-$450.2b
9/23/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53
9/23/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —54.5
9/23/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.6
9/23/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-7
9/23/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —6
9/24/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —29.70%
9/24/2025New Home Sales653k     —652k
9/24/2025New Home Sales MoM0.10%     —-0.60%
9/24/2025Building Permits     —     —1312k
9/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —-3.70%
9/25/2025BEA Releases Annual Update of National Economic Accounts   
9/25/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$95.2b     —-$103.6b
9/25/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-0.10%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —7.10%
9/25/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.10%
9/25/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
9/25/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%     —3.30%
9/25/2025Personal Consumption     —     —1.60%
9/25/2025GDP Price Index     —     —2.00%
9/25/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.50%
9/25/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.50%     —-2.80%
9/25/2025Durables Ex Transportation-0.20%     —1.00%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.10%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
9/25/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —231k
9/25/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.00k
9/25/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1920k
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales3.98m     —4.01m
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-0.80%     —2.00%
9/25/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1
9/26/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%
9/26/2025Personal Spending0.50%     —0.50%
9/26/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
9/26/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/26/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.70%     —2.60%
9/26/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%
9/26/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment56     —55.4
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —61.2
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —51.8
9/26/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.80%
9/26/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.90%
9/26/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —4
9/26/2025Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey   

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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