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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are up 5-8 bps to start the day in sympathy with trading in European markets.

An ECB official said there was no reason for another rate cut, and heavy supply from Italy and the UK are also weighing on government bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.99%, close to breaching the 5% threshold for the first time since mid-July. There are two major economic releases between now and the September 17 FOMC meeting, and the first one is the August jobs report to be released on Friday. The second, the August CPI report, will be released on September 11. For the jobs data, current expectations are for 75,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. There will also be the preliminary annual benchmark revision released later that morning that is expected to show less job growth over the 12-month period ended March 2025 than initially reported. Multiple Fed leaders will speak this week, all regional Fed bank presidents.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/2/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.3     —53.3
9/2/2025ISM Manufacturing49     —48
9/2/2025ISM Prices Paid65     —64.8
9/2/2025ISM New Orders48     —47.1
9/2/2025ISM Employment45     —43.4
9/2/2025Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.40%
9/3/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.50%
9/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings7379k     —7437k
9/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
9/3/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3142k
9/3/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
9/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1604k
9/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
9/3/2025Factory Orders-1.30%     —-4.80%
9/3/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.40%
9/3/2025Durable Goods Orders-2.80%     —-2.80%
9/3/2025Durables Ex Transportation1.10%     —1.10%
9/3/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.10%
9/3/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
9/3/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
9/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.10m     —16.41m
9/4/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —139.80%
9/4/2025ADP Employment Change80k     —104k
9/4/2025Nonfarm Productivity2.70%     —2.40%
9/4/2025Unit Labor Costs1.30%     —1.60%
9/4/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k     —229k
9/4/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —228.50k
9/4/2025Continuing Claims1960k     —1954k
9/4/2025Trade Balance-$78.0b     —-$60.2b
9/4/2025Exports MoM     —     —-0.50%
9/4/2025Imports MoM     —     —-3.70%
9/4/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55.3     —55.4
9/4/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —55.4
9/4/2025ISM Services Index50.9     —50.1
9/4/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —69.9
9/4/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —50.3
9/4/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —46.4
9/5/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls75k     —73k
9/5/2025Change in Private Payrolls75k     —83k
9/5/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-11k
9/5/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —35k
9/5/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-258k
9/5/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/5/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.90%
9/5/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
9/5/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.20%
9/5/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.20%     —62.20%
9/5/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%
9/8/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%
9/8/2025Consumer Credit     —     —$7.371b
9/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —100.3
9/9/2025BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data   

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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