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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are continuing lower this morning, with the curve down 2-3 bps.

Oil’s renewed decline has eased inflationary fears and helped lower the 10-year Treasury to 4.93%. President Trump is set to address the United Nations General Assembly today with a possible meeting with the Iranian counterpart. This comes after news that Iran is open to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Equity futures indicate a positive open after the S&P 500 gained 1.49% on Monday.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/22/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —20.000k16.250k16.750k
9/22/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-8.7-22-10.6     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2     —4     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions-12     —-12     —
9/23/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.10%     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.7     —53.9     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI55.9     —56.5     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI54.9     —56     —
9/24/2026Current Account Balance-$257.4b     —-$226.8b     —
9/24/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —196k     —
9/24/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —203.25k     —
9/24/2026Continuing Claims1740k     —1730k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales616k     —607k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales MoM1.30%     —-10.50%     —
9/24/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity8     —10     —
9/24/2026Building Permits     —     —1394k     —
9/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.70%     —
9/25/2026Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey    
9/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-0.30%     —1.10%     —
9/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%     —0.40%     —
9/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.00%     —
9/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%     —1.20%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment47.5     —47.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions50.7     —50.9     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Expectations45.7     —45.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/25/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-3     —
9/28/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —11.6     —
9/29/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.24%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.10%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.52%     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91     —89.4     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings7225k     —7271k     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —68.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3056k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1666k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%     —
9/29/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —4.2     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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