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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Yields are 1 to 2 bps higher this morning ahead of today’s $70b 5yr auction.

In his speech to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce yesterday, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the central bank is facing a “challenging situation” as both the labor market and inflation are in precarious situations and the “two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path”. He also provided no hint as to whether or not he would support a rate cut at October’s meeting.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
9/24/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —0.60%29.70%
9/24/2025Building Permits1312k1330k1312k
9/24/2025Building Permits MoM0.00%-2.30%-3.70%
9/24/2025New Home Sales650k     —652k
9/24/2025New Home Sales MoM-0.30%     —-0.60%
9/25/2025BEA Releases Annual Update of National Economic Accounts   
9/25/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%     —3.30%
9/25/2025Personal Consumption1.70%     —1.60%
9/25/2025GDP Price Index2.00%     —2.00%
9/25/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%     —2.50%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$95.4b     —-$103.6b
9/25/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-0.10%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —7.10%
9/25/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%     —0.10%
9/25/2025Retail Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
9/25/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.30%     —-2.80%
9/25/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.00%     —1.00%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%     —1.10%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%     —0.70%
9/25/2025Initial Jobless Claims233k     —231k
9/25/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.00k
9/25/2025Continuing Claims1934k     —1920k
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales3.95m     —4.01m
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-1.50%     —2.00%
9/25/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2     —1
9/26/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%
9/26/2025Personal Spending0.50%     —0.50%
9/26/2025Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.30%
9/26/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/26/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.70%     —2.60%
9/26/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%
9/26/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment55.4     —55.4
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions61.2     —61.2
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Expectations51.9     —51.8
9/26/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%     —4.80%
9/26/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%
9/26/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —4
9/26/2025Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey   

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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