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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 1-4 basis points lower this morning after a combination of stronger-than-expected US PMI data and escalating geopolitical concerns sent Treasury yields soaring yesterday to levels not seen in nearly two decades.

Yesterday afternoon, 5-year Treasury yields broke through 5% for the first time since July 2007. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury rate closed at 5.12%, which was the highest it had been since the summer of 2006. After yesterday’s selloff, 2s, 5s, and 10s are now up 137, 124, and 93 basis points on the year, respectively.

In an effort to defend against a further sell-off in long-end Treasury yields, the US Treasury announced an expansion of their Treasury buy-back program that was first announced in early August. The new maximum size of the program is $6 billion of longer-dated Treasury bonds, up from the original $2 billion.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/24/2026Building Permits     —1403k1394k
9/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —-2.10%-2.70%
9/24/2026Current Account Balance-$257.4b-$246.0b-$226.8b
9/24/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k197k196k
9/24/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —202.25k203.25k
9/24/2026Continuing Claims1740k1719k1730k
9/24/2026New Home Sales616k     —607k
9/24/2026New Home Sales MoM1.30%     —-10.50%
9/24/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity9     —10
9/25/2026Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey   
9/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-0.30%     —1.10%
9/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%     —0.40%
9/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.00%
9/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%     —1.20%
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment47.5     —47.8
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions50.7     —50.9
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Expectations45.7     —45.8
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
9/25/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity-2     —-3
9/28/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity7.2     —11.6
9/29/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.24%
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.10%
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.52%
9/29/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91     —89.4
9/29/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings7225k     —7271k
9/29/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —68.2
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3056k
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1666k
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
9/29/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —4.2
9/30/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.50%
9/30/2026ADP Employment Change58k     —38k
9/30/2026Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.70%
9/30/2026BEA Releases Annual Revisions to GDP and Personal Income   
9/30/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%
9/30/2026Personal Spending0.80%     —0.20%
9/30/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
9/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.20%
9/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%     —3.70%
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.40%     —3.30%
9/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%     —1.50%
9/30/2026Personal Consumption     —     —3.40%
9/30/2026GDP Price Index     —     —6.40%
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —3.60%
9/30/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$111.7b     —-$118.8b
9/30/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-2.90%
9/30/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.70%
9/30/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —1.30%
9/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI51.9     —47.1
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-38.50%
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —52881
10/1/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —197k
10/1/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.25k
10/1/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1719k
10/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —57
10/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55     —54.6
10/1/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —71.1
10/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —53.7
10/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —51.2
10/1/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —-0.50%
10/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.65m     —16.76m

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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