Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Treasuries are selling off to the tune of 2 to 4 bps following the release of stronger-than-expected economic data this morning.

Q2 GDP was revised higher to an annualized pace of 3.8%, its fastest pace in close to two years. Additionally, jobless claims data came in lower-than-expected at 218,000 vs the median forecast of 233,000. Last week’s reading was the lowest level since the middle of July. The claims data highlights a labor market that while slowing down with limited hiring, has only seen limited layoffs as well.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
9/25/2025BEA Releases Annual Update of National Economic Accounts   
9/25/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%3.80%3.30%
9/25/2025Personal Consumption1.70%2.50%1.60%
9/25/2025GDP Price Index2.00%2.10%2.00%
9/25/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%2.60%2.50%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$95.4b-$85.5b-$103.6b
9/25/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —-1.30%-0.10%
9/25/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —-7.00%7.10%
9/25/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%-0.20%0.10%
9/25/2025Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.00%0.20%
9/25/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.30%2.90%-2.80%
9/25/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.00%0.40%1.00%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.60%1.10%
9/25/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%-0.30%0.70%
9/25/2025Initial Jobless Claims233k218k231k
9/25/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —237.50k240.00k
9/25/2025Continuing Claims1932k1926k1920k
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales3.95m     —4.01m
9/25/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-1.50%     —2.00%
9/25/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2     —1
9/26/2025Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%
9/26/2025Personal Spending0.50%     —0.50%
9/26/2025Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.30%
9/26/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/26/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.70%     —2.60%
9/26/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%
9/26/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.90%
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment55.4     —55.4
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions61.3     —61.2
9/26/2025U. of Mich. Expectations52     —51.8
9/26/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%     —4.80%
9/26/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%
9/26/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —4
9/26/2025Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey   

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.