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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

A decline in oil prices is bringing pause to the global bond selloff, but trading volumes in Treasuries overnight implies limited conviction.

Front-end yields are down 2-3 basis points (bps) this morning but remain up 15-18 bps on the week. On the data front, durable goods orders generally exceeded expectations in August. Capital goods orders excluding commercial aircraft rose 1.6% m/m versus expectations of a 0.6% gain, and the prior month was revised higher by 60 bps. Shipments of capital goods orders ex-aircraft were slightly lower than expected (0.6% vs. 0.8%), but this was offset by a 20-bps upward revision to the prior month. This report would suggest that the broadening of business investment in the Q2 GDP report continues.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/25/2026Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey    
9/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-0.30%0.00%1.10%0.90%
9/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.30%0.40%0.70%
9/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%1.60%0.00%0.60%
9/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.60%1.20%1.40%
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment47.5     —47.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions50.5     —50.9     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Expectations45.7     —45.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%     —4.60%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/25/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity-1     —-3     —
9/28/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity7.3     —11.6     —
9/29/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%     —0.24%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.10%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.52%     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90     —89.4     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings7225k     —7271k     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —68.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3056k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1666k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%     —
9/29/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —4.2     —
9/30/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.50%     —
9/30/2026ADP Employment Change70k     —38k     —
9/30/2026Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.70%0.80%
9/30/2026BEA Releases Annual Revisions to GDP and Personal Income    
9/30/2026Personal Income0.50%     —0.40%     —
9/30/2026Personal Spending0.90%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026Real Personal Spending0.60%     —0.00%     —
9/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%     —3.70%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.30%     —
9/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%     —1.50%     —
9/30/2026Personal Consumption3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/30/2026GDP Price Index6.40%     —6.40%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.60%     —3.60%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$113.9b     —-$118.8b-$118.9b
9/30/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-2.90%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.70%3.90%
9/30/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —1.30%     —
9/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI51.2     —47.1     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-38.50%     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —52881     —
10/1/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —197k     —
10/1/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.25k     —
10/1/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1719k     —
10/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —57     —
10/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55     —54.6     —
10/1/2026ISM Prices Paid72     —71.1     —
10/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —53.7     —
10/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —51.2     —
10/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —-0.50%     —
10/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.59m     —16.76m     —
10/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls100k     —162k     —
10/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —55k     —
10/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls90k     —127k     —
10/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k     —16k     —
10/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —71k     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%     —3.10%     —
10/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.4     —
10/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
10/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —61.60%     —
10/2/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.70%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders-0.10%     —0.90%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.60%     —
10/2/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.00%     —
10/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.60%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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