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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields have turned higher following the release of better-than-expected economic data this morning.

Initial jobless claims were 218,000 last week, 5,000 below expectations and the second straight week below the multi-month trend of 230,000. Separately, the first look at August durable goods orders surprised to the upside, with core capital goods orders up 0.2% (0.1% expected). Congress was able to pass another short-term resolution late yesterday to fund the federal government until late December, avoiding another government shutdown ahead of the November elections. Eight different Fed leaders will be making public appearances today, including pre-recorded remarks from Fed Chair Powell at a US Treasury Market Conference.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/26/2024BEA annual revisions to GDP/National Economic Accounts    
9/26/2024GDP Annualized QoQ2.90%3.00%3.00%—
9/26/2024Personal Consumption2.90%2.80%2.90%—
9/26/2024GDP Price Index2.50%2.50%2.50%—
9/26/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.80%2.80%2.80%—
9/26/2024Durable Goods Orders-2.60%0.00%9.80%9.90%
9/26/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.50%-0.20%-0.10%
9/26/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.20%-0.10%-0.20%
9/26/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.10%-0.30%-0.40%
9/26/2024Initial Jobless Claims223k218k219k222k
9/26/2024Continuing Claims1828k1834k1829k1821k
9/26/2024Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%—-5.50%—
9/26/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-5.50%—-4.60%—
9/26/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-5—-3—
9/27/2024Personal Income0.40%—0.30%—
9/27/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/27/2024Personal Spending0.30%—0.50%—
9/27/2024Real Personal Spending0.10%—0.40%—
9/27/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.10%—0.20%—
9/27/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.30%—2.50%—
9/27/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$100.3b—-$102.7b-$102.8b
9/27/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.20%—
9/27/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.70%—2.60%—
9/27/2024Retail Inventories MoM0.60%—0.80%—
9/27/2024Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey    
9/27/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment69.3—69—
9/27/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——62.9—
9/27/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——73—
9/27/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.70%—
9/27/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.10%—
9/27/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——5—
9/30/2024MNI Chicago PMI45.2—46.1—
9/30/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-9.7—
10/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——47—
10/1/2024Construction Spending MoM——-0.30%—
10/1/2024JOLTS Job Openings——7673k—
10/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47—47.2—
10/1/2024ISM Prices Paid——54—
10/1/2024ISM New Orders——44.6—
10/1/2024ISM Employment——46—
10/1/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-7.7—
10/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales——15.13m—
10/2/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——11.00%—
10/2/2024ADP Employment Change125k—99k—
10/3/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——1.00%—
10/3/2024Initial Jobless Claims——218k—
10/3/2024Continuing Claims——1834k—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——55.4—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.4—
10/3/2024Factory Orders——5.00%—
10/3/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.40%—
10/3/2024Durable Goods Orders——0.00%—
10/3/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.50%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.20%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.10%—
10/3/2024ISM Services Index51.5—51.5—
10/3/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——57.3—
10/3/2024ISM Services Employment——50.2—
10/3/2024ISM Services New Orders——53—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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