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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Any optimism related to progress in negotiations with Iran late last week has quickly faded.

Oil prices are up 3% on the day, and front-end Treasury yields are 5 basis points higher. The main economic calendar highlight for this week will be the September jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show 90,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate (4.1%). The August PCE report will be released on Wednesday, along with personal income and spending data. Most Fed leaders will be speaking this week, with the notable exception of Fed Chair Warsh.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/28/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity7.8     —11.6     —
9/29/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.00%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%     —0.24%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA2.20%     —2.10%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.52%     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence89.1     —89.4     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Present Situation120.4     —121.2     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Expectations68.3     —68.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings7225k     —7271k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Level3097k     —3056k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1666k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%     —
9/29/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity1.6     —4.2     —
9/30/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.50%     —
9/30/2026ADP Employment Change74k     —38k     —
9/30/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.30%     —0.70%0.80%
9/30/2026BEA Releases Annual Revisions to GDP and Personal Income    
9/30/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%     —
9/30/2026Personal Spending0.90%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026Real Personal Spending0.50%     —0.00%     —
9/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%     —3.70%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.30%     —
9/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%     —1.50%     —
9/30/2026Personal Consumption3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/30/2026GDP Price Index6.40%     —6.40%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.60%     —3.60%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$115.0b     —-$118.8b-$118.9b
9/30/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-2.90%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.70%3.90%
9/30/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%     —1.30%     —
9/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI51     —47.1     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-38.50%     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —52881     —
10/1/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —197k     —
10/1/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.25k     —
10/1/2026Continuing Claims1730k     —1719k     —
10/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI57     —57     —
10/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55     —54.6     —
10/1/2026ISM Prices Paid72.5     —71.1     —
10/1/2026ISM New Orders55.1     —53.7     —
10/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —51.2     —
10/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.50%     —
10/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.76m     —
10/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls90k     —162k     —
10/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —55k     —
10/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls87k     —127k     —
10/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls12k     —16k     —
10/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —71k     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%     —3.10%     —
10/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.4     —
10/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
10/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%     —61.60%     —
10/2/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.70%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders0.10%     —0.90%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.50%     —0.60%     —
10/2/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.00%     —
10/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.60%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —58.7     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —58.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Index55.2     —55.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid73     —72.6     —
10/5/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —60.9     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —47.8     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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