Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Decent demand for Treasuries overnight has yields down 1-3 basis points to start the week.

The labor market will be a primary focus this week, with multiple metrics released in the coming days capped by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Several Fed leaders are also scheduled to speak this week, including four today (Waller, Hammack, Musalem, & Bostic). Cleveland Fed President Hammack participated on a panel with European Central Bank leaders earlier this morning and expressed concern toward ongoing inflation pressures in core services. She characterized the current fed funds rate as “mildly restrictive.” Hammack is not a voting member of the FOMC this year but will be in 2026. Lastly, President Trump will meet with the top four Congressional leaders across both parties today in an attempt to secure a short-term funding bill and avoid a government shutdown. Financial markets have been largely dismissive of this risk, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% this morning despite the October 1 deadline.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/29/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%     —-0.40%
9/29/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —0.30%
9/29/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-1.6     —-1.8
9/30/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM-0.10%     —-0.20%
9/30/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA-0.20%     —-0.25%
9/30/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.91%     —2.14%
9/30/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.89%
9/30/2025MNI Chicago PMI43.3     —41.5
9/30/2025JOLTS Job Openings7170k     —7181k
9/30/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.30%
9/30/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3208k
9/30/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
9/30/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1808k
9/30/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
9/30/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence96     —97.4
9/30/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —131.2
9/30/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.8
9/30/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —6.8
10/1/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.60%
10/1/2025ADP Employment Change50k     —54k
10/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52
10/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49     —48.7
10/1/2025ISM Prices Paid62.5     —63.7
10/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —51.4
10/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —43.8
10/1/2025Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
10/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.20m     —16.07m
10/2/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —13.30%
10/2/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —218k
10/2/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —237.50k
10/2/2025Continuing Claims1930k     —1926k
10/2/2025Factory Orders1.40%     —-1.30%
10/2/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.60%
10/2/2025Durable Goods Orders2.90%     —2.90%
10/2/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%
10/2/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%
10/2/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.30%
10/3/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k     —22k
10/3/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
10/3/2025Change in Private Payrolls60k     —38k
10/3/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-9k     —-12k
10/3/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
10/3/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
10/3/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
10/3/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
10/3/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
10/3/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.9     —53.9
10/3/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.6
10/3/2025ISM Services Index51.7     —52
10/3/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —69.2
10/3/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —56
10/3/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —46.5

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.