Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are less than 2 basis points higher this morning after recovering from a deeper sell-off overnight.

The 30-year bond yield briefly touched 5% before dip buyers emerged. Fed Chair Powell kicked the door wide open for a rate cut on the 17th, but the door isn’t closed yet with several data releases between now and then. It starts with today’s JOLTS report, although some have questioned the reliability of that data over the last year or so relative to some private market surveys (e.g., Indeed). Weekly jobless claims follow tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. It will likely take upside surprises in multiple reports to shake market expectations for a rate cut in two weeks, and Friday’s payrolls report will carry more weight than the others, perhaps with the exception of the CPI report on the 11th.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/3/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-1.20%-0.50%
9/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings7380k     —7437k
9/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
9/3/2025JOLTS Quits Level3166k     —3142k
9/3/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
9/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level1639k     —1604k
9/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
9/3/2025Factory Orders-1.30%     —-4.80%
9/3/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%     —0.40%
9/3/2025Durable Goods Orders-2.80%     —-2.80%
9/3/2025Durables Ex Transportation1.10%     —1.10%
9/3/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.10%     —1.10%
9/3/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
9/3/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
9/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.10m     —16.41m
9/4/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —139.80%
9/4/2025ADP Employment Change70k     —104k
9/4/2025Nonfarm Productivity2.70%     —2.40%
9/4/2025Unit Labor Costs1.20%     —1.60%
9/4/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k     —229k
9/4/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —228.50k
9/4/2025Continuing Claims1960k     —1954k
9/4/2025Trade Balance-$77.9b     —-$60.2b
9/4/2025Exports MoM     —     —-0.50%
9/4/2025Imports MoM     —     —-3.70%
9/4/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55.4     —55.4
9/4/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI55.3     —55.4
9/4/2025ISM Services Index51     —50.1
9/4/2025ISM Services Prices Paid69.5     —69.9
9/4/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —50.3
9/4/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —46.4
9/5/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls75k     —73k
9/5/2025Change in Private Payrolls75k     —83k
9/5/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-11k
9/5/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —35k
9/5/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-258k
9/5/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/5/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.90%
9/5/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
9/5/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.20%
9/5/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.20%     —62.20%
9/5/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%
9/8/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%
9/8/2025Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$7.371b
9/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —100.3
9/9/2025BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data   
9/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.20%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.60%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.30%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.70%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
9/10/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
9/10/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.30%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.