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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are modestly lower on reports that the Bank of Japan will likely move forward with a rate hike this month, fueling a rally in the yen.

The move in Treasuries this morning comes despite Brent crude futures being up 1.5% and again approaching $100/barrel. Israel’s defense minister said any incoming attack from Iran would “free us all from restrictions,” which is being attributed as a primary catalyst for the rally in oil prices so far today. Initial jobless claims are expected to have held relatively steady in the low 200,000 range last week. The August ISM services report will also be released this morning and is expected to show continued expansion in activity for the US services sector. Three Fed leaders will speak today, beginning with Governor Chris Waller this morning. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, one of the three dissenting votes at the July FOMC meeting, will speak later this afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —-38.50%-46.10%     —
9/3/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —5288133429     —
9/3/2026Trade Balance-$90.2b-$88.6b-$73.3b-$71.2b
9/3/2026Imports MoM1.80%2.80%-1.80%     —
9/3/2026Exports MoM-1.00%-2.10%-0.90%-0.80%
9/3/2026Nonfarm Productivity1.40%1.40%1.40%     —
9/3/2026Unit Labor Costs1.30%1.20%1.30%     —
9/3/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k206k203k204k
9/3/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg205.63k207.25k205.50k205.75k
9/3/2026Continuing Claims1784k1779k1778k1771k
9/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI56.8     —56.8     —
9/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI56.1     —56     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Index54.1     —54.1     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid70     —70.3     —
9/3/2026ISM Services New Orders56     —57.2     —
9/3/2026ISM Services Employment48.3     —47.4     —
9/4/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls55k     —-23k     —
9/4/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-103k     —
9/4/2026Change in Private Payrolls50k     —30k     —
9/4/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k     —5k     —
9/4/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —20k     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
9/4/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%     —3.20%     —
9/4/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
9/4/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
9/4/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%     —61.40%     —
9/4/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%     —
9/8/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99.8     —
9/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.63%     —
9/8/2026Consumer Credit$13.000b     —$14.173b     —
9/9/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.80%     —
9/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —11.750k     —
9/10/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —206k     —
9/10/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.25k     —
9/10/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1779k     —
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%     —0.00%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.40%     —
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —4.70%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —4.20%     —
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —4.70%     —
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.99m     —4.06m     —
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.60%     —-1.70%     —
9/10/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —1.30%     —
9/10/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-3.00%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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