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Author Jason Haley

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The Treasury curve is bear flattening to start the week, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 6 basis points so far this morning.

China’s CSI 300 stock index posted its biggest gain since 2008, rising 8.5% on the day, as the government provided another round of stimulus to boost its economy. Also contributing to today’s selloff are higher commodity prices and the threat of a US port workers strike. The latter could lead to a surge in freight costs for several sectors, including retailers and automakers, ahead of the holiday shopping season, which could push consumer prices higher. The primary focus for financial markets this week will be the September jobs report on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the median economist estimates are for 145,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change to the unemployment rate (4.2%). Michelle Bowman, who was the first Fed governor to vote against a FOMC policy decision since 2005, is speaking this morning, and Fed Chair Powell will speak this afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/30/2024MNI Chicago PMI46—46.1—
9/30/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-10.3—-9.7—
10/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI47—47—
10/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.20%—-0.30%—
10/1/2024JOLTS Job Openings7660k—7673k—
10/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.6—47.2—
10/1/2024ISM Prices Paid53.8—54—
10/1/2024ISM New Orders——44.6—
10/1/2024ISM Employment——46—
10/1/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-7.7—
10/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.64m—15.13m—
10/2/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——11.00%—
10/2/2024ADP Employment Change125k—99k—
10/3/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——1.00%—
10/3/2024Initial Jobless Claims221k—218k—
10/3/2024Continuing Claims1830k—1834k—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.4—55.4—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.4—
10/3/2024Factory Orders0.10%—5.00%—
10/3/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.40%—
10/3/2024Durable Goods Orders0.00%—0.00%—
10/3/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.50%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.20%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.10%—
10/3/2024ISM Services Index51.6—51.5—
10/3/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——57.3—
10/3/2024ISM Services Employment——50.2—
10/3/2024ISM Services New Orders——53—
10/4/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls145k—142k—
10/4/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-86k—
10/4/2024Change in Private Payrolls125k—118k—
10/4/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k—-24k—
10/4/2024Unemployment Rate4.20%—4.20%—
10/4/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
10/4/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.80%—3.80%—
10/4/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
10/4/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
10/4/2024Underemployment Rate——7.90%—
10/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.700b—$25.452b—
10/7/2024Monthly Budget Statement——-$380.1b-$380.1b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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