Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The federal government appears to be headed for at least a temporary shutdown, but the reaction from financial markets remains muted so far.

Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points lower to start the morning, and U.S. equity futures are modestly lower ahead of the open. The debt ceiling was raised this summer, so there is no risk of a bond default in the most recent Congressional budget standoff. Democrats are pushing for an extension of Affordable Care Act healthcare subsidies in the funding bill, and President Trump said this morning that “maybe a lot” of government employees could be fired if a shutdown takes effect. If no deal is reached prior to month end, it would be the 14th time a government shutdown has occurred in modern history. Later this morning, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index results for July and the August JOLTS reports will be released. Multiple Fed leaders are also scheduled to speak throughout the day.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/30/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM-0.20%     —-0.20%
9/30/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA-0.20%     —-0.25%
9/30/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.55%     —2.14%
9/30/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.89%
9/30/2025MNI Chicago PMI43.3     —41.5
9/30/2025JOLTS Job Openings7200k     —7181k
9/30/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate4.20%     —4.30%
9/30/2025JOLTS Quits Level3165k     —3208k
9/30/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
9/30/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level1827k     —1808k
9/30/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
9/30/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence96     —97.4
9/30/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —131.2
9/30/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.8
9/30/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —6.8
10/1/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.60%
10/1/2025ADP Employment Change51k     —54k
10/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52
10/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49     —48.7
10/1/2025ISM Prices Paid62.9     —63.7
10/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —51.4
10/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —43.8
10/1/2025Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
10/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.20m     —16.07m
10/2/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —13.30%
10/2/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —218k
10/2/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —237.50k
10/2/2025Continuing Claims1932k     —1926k
10/2/2025Factory Orders1.40%     —-1.30%
10/2/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%     —0.60%
10/2/2025Durable Goods Orders2.90%     —2.90%
10/2/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%
10/2/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%
10/2/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.30%
10/3/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls51k     —22k
10/3/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
10/3/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k     —38k
10/3/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-8k     —-12k
10/3/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
10/3/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
10/3/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
10/3/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
10/3/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
10/3/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.9     —53.9
10/3/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.6     —53.6
10/3/2025ISM Services Index51.8     —52
10/3/2025ISM Services Prices Paid68     —69.2
10/3/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —56
10/3/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —46.5
10/7/2025Trade Balance-$61.4b     —-$78.3b
10/7/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.30%
10/7/2025Imports MoM     —     —5.90%
10/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
10/7/2025Consumer Credit$15.000b     —$16.010b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.