Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A softer than expected inflation report is bringing modest relief to the recent selloff in Treasuries this morning.

Personal income rose less than expected in August (0.2% m/m vs. 0.5%), but personal spending was robust. On an inflation-adjusted basis, spending rose 0.6% m/m, the biggest monthly increase since March 2025. The biggest focus for the market is the inflation component. Headline PCE rose 0.3% m/m, as expected, but the year-over-year metric was lower than expected at 3.4%. The bigger reaction piece for markets was core PCE, which rose just 0.2% m/m (0.3% expected) and 3.0% y/y (3.3% expected). The outsized drop in the year-over-year core measure was partly due to annual revisions by the BEA. It’s just one report, but it may ease some anxiety from Fed leaders ahead of the October 28 FOMC meeting. That said, we still have more data to come before then, including the September CPI report.

Lastly, the final estimate of Q2 GDP was revised higher by 70 bps to 2.2%. Personal consumption was revised higher by 40 bps to 3.4%. The price action in Treasuries has been choppy in the immediate reaction to the data, but front-end yields remain a few basis points lower on the day. Equity futures are solidly in the green 40 minutes before the open.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/30/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-6.00%-1.50%     —
9/30/2026ADP Employment Change75k90k38k36k
9/30/2026BEA Releases Annual Revisions to GDP and Personal Income    
9/30/2026Personal Income0.50%0.20%0.40%0.30%
9/30/2026Personal Spending0.90%0.90%0.20%0.10%
9/30/2026Real Personal Spending0.50%0.60%0.00%0.10%
9/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%0.10%
9/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%3.40%3.70%3.40%
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.10%
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%3.00%3.30%3.00%
9/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%2.20%1.50%     —
9/30/2026Personal Consumption3.40%3.80%3.40%     —
9/30/2026GDP Price Index6.40%6.10%6.40%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.60%3.30%3.60%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$115.0b-$132.6b-$118.8b-$118.9b
9/30/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA1.20%1.90%-2.90%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA1.00%5.50%3.70%3.90%
9/30/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.70%1.30%     —
9/30/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.30%0.30%0.70%0.80%
9/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI51     —47.1     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-38.50%     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —52881     —
10/1/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —197k     —
10/1/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.25k     —
10/1/2026Continuing Claims1725k     —1719k     —
10/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI57     —57     —
10/1/2026ISM Manufacturing54.9     —54.6     —
10/1/2026ISM Prices Paid72.5     —71.1     —
10/1/2026ISM New Orders54.2     —53.7     —
10/1/2026ISM Employment52.2     —51.2     —
10/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.50%     —
10/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.76m     —
10/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls90k     —162k     —
10/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —55k     —
10/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls80k     —127k     —
10/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k     —16k     —
10/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —71k     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%     —3.10%     —
10/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.4     —
10/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
10/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%     —61.60%     —
10/2/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.70%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders0.10%     —0.90%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%     —0.60%     —
10/2/2026Durable Goods Orders0.00%     —0.00%     —
10/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.60%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —58.7     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —58.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Index55.2     —55.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid73     —72.6     —
10/5/2026ISM Services New Orders60.1     —60.9     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Employment49     —47.8     —
10/6/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —20.000k     —
10/6/2026Trade Balance-$83.8b     —-$88.6b     —
10/6/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.80%     —
10/6/2026Exports MoM     —     —-2.10%     —
10/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-6.00%     —
10/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.64%     —3.58%     —
10/7/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
10/7/2026Consumer Credit$15.000b     —$18.062b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.