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Author Hafizan Hamzah

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 2 to 3 bps lower this morning following initial jobless claims data.

Jobless claims rose by 8,000 last week to 237,000, hitting its highest level since June. The median forecast had called for 230,000 new applications. Continuing claims was little changed at 1.94 million. Additionally, ADP hiring data came in lower than expected at 54,000 vs an expectation of 68,000. The jobless claims and ADP data lends further credence to the idea that the labor market is cooling. We’ll get another look at the labor market with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls data which is expected to show an increase of 75,000, up slightly from the prior month’s 73,000 reading.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/4/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —13.30%139.80%
9/4/2025ADP Employment Change68k54k104k
9/4/2025Nonfarm Productivity2.70%3.30%2.40%
9/4/2025Unit Labor Costs1.20%1.00%1.60%
9/4/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k237k229k
9/4/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —231.00k228.50k
9/4/2025Continuing Claims1959k1940k1954k
9/4/2025Trade Balance-$77.9b-$78.3b-$60.2b
9/4/2025Exports MoM     —0.30%-0.50%
9/4/2025Imports MoM     —5.90%-3.70%
9/4/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55.4     —55.4
9/4/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI55.3     —55.4
9/4/2025ISM Services Index51     —50.1
9/4/2025ISM Services Prices Paid69.5     —69.9
9/4/2025ISM Services New Orders51.1     —50.3
9/4/2025ISM Services Employment46.7     —46.4
9/5/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls75k     —73k
9/5/2025Change in Private Payrolls75k     —83k
9/5/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-11k
9/5/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —35k
9/5/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-258k
9/5/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/5/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.90%
9/5/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
9/5/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.20%
9/5/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.20%     —62.20%
9/5/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%
9/8/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%
9/8/2025Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$7.371b
9/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —100.3
9/9/2025BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data   
9/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.20%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.60%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.30%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.70%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
9/10/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
9/10/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI YoY2.90%     —2.70%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%
9/11/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —323.048
9/11/2025CPI Core Index SA     —     —328.656
9/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%
9/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.40%
9/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —237k
9/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —231.00k
9/11/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1940k
9/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —-$1595b
9/11/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$380.1b

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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