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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

It has been a relatively quiet start to the week so far, with Treasury yields little changed this morning.

The government will sell $119 billion of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds this week in addition to regular bill issuance. The economic calendar for this week is headlined by the July CPI report (Thursday) and tomorrow’s release of the annual benchmark revision of nonfarm payrolls for the 12-month period ended March 2025. The latter is expected to show a downward revision to previous estimates of job growth, perhaps as much as 50,000 jobs per month. Following Friday’s jobs report, the bond market priced modest odds of a 50-basis point cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, but this week’s CPI report could squash any such speculation barring a material downside surprise. Fed governor Waller, who has been one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, suggested last week that the bar would be relatively high for such a move from his perspective.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/8/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.09%
9/8/2025Consumer Credit$10.200b     —$7.371b
9/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism100.5     —100.3
9/9/2025BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data   
9/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.20%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.60%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.30%     —3.30%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.50%     —3.70%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
9/10/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
9/10/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI YoY2.90%     —2.70%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%
9/11/2025CPI Index NSA323.91     —323.048
9/11/2025CPI Core Index SA329.64     —328.656
9/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%
9/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.40%
9/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims235k     —237k
9/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —231.00k
9/11/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —1940k
9/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —-$1595b
9/11/2025Federal Budget Balance-$322.7b     —-$380.1b
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment58     —58.2
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions62     —61.7
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Expectations55.9     —55.9
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.50%     —4.80%
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.50%
9/15/2025Empire Manufacturing3     —11.9

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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