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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points higher on the front-end of the curve this morning ahead of this afternoon’s $58 billion 3-year note auction.

There were no major data releases or headlines overnight, but the first estimate of the BLS’s annual benchmark revision for nonfarm payrolls will be released later this morning. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose more than expected in August to 100.8, the highest reading since February but still below the 105.1 level at the end of last year. An increase in survey respondents expecting higher real sales contributed the most to last month’s gain in optimism, while labor quality remained the greatest concern according to the survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/9/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism100.5100.8100.3
9/9/2025Prelim. Benchmark Payrolls Revision-682k     —-818k
9/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.20%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.90%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.60%
9/10/2025PPI Final Demand YoY3.30%     —3.30%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.50%     —3.70%
9/10/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
9/10/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
9/10/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.30%
9/11/2025CPI YoY2.90%     —2.70%
9/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%
9/11/2025CPI Index NSA323.921     —323.048
9/11/2025CPI Core Index SA329.64     —328.656
9/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.20%
9/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.40%
9/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims235k     —237k
9/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —231.00k
9/11/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —1940k
9/11/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —-$1595b
9/11/2025Federal Budget Balance-$323.9b     —-$380.1b
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment58     —58.2
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions62     —61.7
9/12/2025U. of Mich. Expectations55.9     —55.9
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%     —4.80%
9/12/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.50%
9/15/2025Empire Manufacturing3     —11.9
9/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.50%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.30%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%     —0.20%
9/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group     —     —0.50%
9/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-11.7
9/16/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
9/16/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.30%
9/16/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —-0.20%
9/16/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%
9/16/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.20%
9/16/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —-0.10%
9/16/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%
9/16/2025Capacity Utilization77.40%     —77.50%
9/16/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.20%
9/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —32

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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