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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields continue to leak higher this morning as the entire curve is roughly +2 bps from yesterday’s close.

Equity futures are also lower as we reach the midpoint of a shortened week. Both markets are being driven by continued strikes in the Middle East overnight. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Bessent challenged traders to test his resolve on boosting Japan’s currency, saying when he wades into markets these days, he’s effectively doing so with inside information. Finally, all eyes remain focused on Thursday’s CPI report as effectively the last large data point before next Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
9/9/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-2.70%0.80%
9/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —10.000k11.750k
9/9/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —12.000k10.000k
9/10/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —206k
9/10/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.25k
9/10/2026Continuing Claims1780k     —1779k
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%     —0.00%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.40%
9/10/2026PPI Final Demand YoY5.30%     —4.70%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.60%     —4.20%
9/10/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.80%     —4.70%
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales3.99m     —4.06m
9/10/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.60%     —-1.70%
9/10/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%     —1.30%
9/10/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-3.00%
9/11/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.10%
9/11/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.20%
9/11/2026CPI MoM0.40%     —0.10%
9/11/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%
9/11/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —3.40%
9/11/2026Core CPI YoY2.40%     —2.50%
9/11/2026CPI Index NSA334.867     —333.918
9/11/2026Core CPI Index SA337.578     —336.789
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51.7
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.6     —51.9
9/11/2026U. of Mich. Expectations51     —51.5
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.00%
9/11/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%
9/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$113b
9/11/2026Federal Budget Balance-$220.0b     —-$344.8b
9/15/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —12.000k
9/15/2026Empire Manufacturing12.1     —20.6
9/16/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.70%
9/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —0.5
9/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —-0.40%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%     —-0.60%
9/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.30%
9/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —5.90%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%     —-0.30%
9/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —-1.30%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —-0.20%
9/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.20%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.40%
9/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —35
9/16/2026Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%
9/16/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —3.65%
9/16/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.75%
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.63%
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.38%
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs     —     —3.13%
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.06%
9/16/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$133.5b
9/16/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$172.7b

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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