Monthly Market Commentary

Economic Update • The U.S. economy has outperformed economist and market expectations in 2023 thanks to resilient U.S. households • After accounting for inflation, liquid assets of most U.S. households are back to pre-COVID levels, which could lead to more subdued...

Economic Update Technical factors have contributed to higher real yields in multiple large fixed income markets in recent months Housing affordability is the worst it has been in decades amid a sharp rise in mortgage rates and sticky home prices Liquidity has...

Economic Update • Some have characterized the latest Fed economic forecasts as the ‘Immaculate Disinflation' • The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations with still-healthy fundamentals, but there are multiple headwinds to navigate over the next year • The last...

Economic Update • Treasury yields reached 15-year highs across much of the curve in August • Economic optimism and rising U.S. budget deficits have pressured long-end benchmark yields higher in recent weeks • Community-based financial institutions are experiencing...

Economic Update • After a brief pause in June, the FOMC announced its 11th rate hike of the current cycle on July 26, and Fed Chair Powell struck a more neutral tone in the press conference • Market pricing has become more aligned with Fed guidance for 2024 interest...

Economic Update The 2nd half of 2023 begins with no more certainty on the timing or severity of a business cycle change Consumers have proven more resilient than many economists expected, and while savings have eroded over the last year, the windfall of COVID stimulus...

Economic Update   A U.S. default appears to have been averted, but obstacles remain for financial markets Market pricing for Fed interest rate policy has been volatile in 2023, and May was no different In reviewing industry data following the March bank failures,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial markets are in a bit of a holding pattern, sandwiched between the recent banking upheaval and the looming debt ceiling negotiations Recent data suggest a resilient U.S. consumer and persistent inflation pressures The date at which the...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Something finally broke and not in an area that market participants were expecting Fresh regulations for the banking industry are almost certain, and we contemplate what those might look like The FOMC moved forward with a 25 basis point rate hike on...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Upside surprises for labor market and inflation data sparked a market repricing of Fed expectations in February, sending rates sharply higher over the month Heightened rate volatility on the front-end of the curve has made the job of pricing loans and...