Monthly Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE High economic optimism and more fiscal stimulus contributed to further curve steepening in the Treasury market in MarchEconomist estimates for 2021 growth and consumption are well above long-run trends, and recent measures of restaurant activity and...

ECONOMIC UPDATE A combination of factors, including inflation worries, contributed to a sharp and sudden steepening of the yield curve in FebruaryRecent COVID trends and economic data have improved, fueling general market optimismSome feel that the bond market is...

ECONOMIC UPDATE A new White House, but the issue remains the same – dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic There were positive trends on the virus front in January, including reduction in the number of people hospitalized for COVID in the United StatesFed Chair Powell...

ECONOMIC UPDATE While vaccine success has brightened the 2021 economic outlook, the first quarter is less certain amid surging cases and renewed lockdownsThe labor market has recovered approximately 60% of lost jobs since the pandemic began, and a potential rise in...

ECONOMIC UPDATE A very challenging year ends with positive developments on the Covid-19 vaccine front, but the recent surge in cases has triggered fresh restrictions in parts of the U.S.Markets have been well-behaved in the wake of the November 3 election, and the...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Election week has finally arrived, and economists and market participants continue to contemplate various outcomes as it relates to future fiscal policy, regulation, etc.Q3 GDP growth was better than expected, aided by aggressive monetary and fiscal...

ECONOMIC UPDATE 2020 has been a very difficult year on many fronts, and the economic outlook for Q4 is less certain with Congress unable to agree on additional fiscal aidDespite the uncertainty, the economic data trend, as a whole, continues to exceed expectations,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE August was atypically busy for broad financial marketsFed Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new monetary policy framework during his annual Jackson Hole address, including a shift to average inflation targetingDespite various distractions in recent weeks,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The path of COVID-19 remains the predominant driver of economic outlooks, and July was not a positive month on that frontQ2 GDP was expectedly bad on a historic level, but Q3 began with positive momentum on multiple fronts, but continued progress will...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Broad market functionality is much improved despite the uncertain economic outlook, thanks in large part to the actions of monetary and fiscal policymakersEconomic forecasting is as challenging as ever, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index posted...