Monthly Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The bond market got off to a great start in January, boosted by lower rates, tighter spreads, and reduced rate volatility Financial markets continue to fight Fed guidance by pricing for rate cuts in the second half of the year; Fed Chair Powell’s...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The calendar has thankfully turned on a dreadful year for most financial markets The Fed transitioned from a ‘transitory’ characterization of inflation risks to extreme policy tightening in 2022, including 425 basis points of rate hikes and >$400...

ECONOMIC UPDATE- While 2022 has been a year to forget, financial markets have been more optimistic about theprospect that peak inflation has been reached- Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes is likely at theDecember 14 meeting, but...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The FOMC announced a fourth consecutive 75 basis point (bp) rate hike at the November 2 meeting but opened the door for slowing the pace of hikes at future meetingsThere have been positive signs of slowing demand and easing supply disruptions, but...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Rate volatility reached fresh 2022 highs in September as inflation persisted and central banks passed through significant monetary policy tighteningThe FOMC announced a third consecutive 75 basis point (bp) rate hike at the September meeting, marking...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Fed Chair Powell delivered another hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, implying a “higher for longer” mantra even as efforts to rein in inflation come with economic painAugust was another painful month in a historically bad year for fixed income investors,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Recession speculation ratcheted higher on July 28 when it was reported that GDP contracted for a second straight quarterThe Q2 GDP report did show signs that Fed tightening is having a negative impact on sectors more sensitive to interest rates, such...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Interest rate volatility reached 2022 highs in June as an above-expectations May CPI report drove the first 75 basis point (bp) Fed rate hike since 1994Inflation worries morphed into recession worries and potential Fed policy error as the month...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The biggest unanswered question for financial markets at this point is how the U.S. economy will respond to high inflation and tightening financial conditionsSome Fed leaders have expressed an openness to a pause or slowdown in the pace of rate hikes...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The first quarter was historically bad for fixed income, and April did nothing to break the bearish trendRecent economic data support the narrative of an overheated labor market and inflation risksThere are plenty of potential obstacles for future...