Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE The Fed announced another rate cut in October, but forward guidance suggests that monetary policy is on hold for nowTrade headlines have been less negative, and the U.S. economy appears to be in better shape than some fearedThe Fed is increasing the...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE Risk markets rebounded in September with less negative headlines on the trade front, but many questions loom entering Q4A supply/demand imbalance in overnight funding markets forced the Fed to intervene and inject liquidity into money marketsThe Fed...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE August was atypically volatile for global financial markets in response to escalated U.S./China tensionsThe Fed is expected to cut the fed funds rate again in September, Powell and his colleagues have been hesitant to suggest a new easing cycle has...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE The Fed met market expectations with a July rate cut, but future policy is less certain.The U.S. and China resumed negotiations during the last week of July and the Trump administration has discussed potential waivers for American tech firms selling...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE Trade worries contributed to increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut.Three events during the week of June 17 eased investor concerns and boosted risk assets.The FOMC did not cut rates at the June 19 meeting. However, updated forward guidance...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE Market sentiment turned notably bearish in May following a breakdown in U.S./China negotiationsThe Trump administration also decided to “weaponize” trade versus Mexico to affect immigration policyThe markets had largely been focused on the inflation...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE Q1 GDP growth was better than expected, but the underlying components were less favorableDisinflation concerns have been voiced by some Fed leaders, leading the market to price a higher probability of a 2019 rate cutFed Chair Powell did not share those...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE The sharp rally in Treasuries raised questions regarding the health of the U.S./global economy and future Fed policy The March FOMC meeting was more dovish than expected, with no projected rate hikes in 2019 according to the median participant forecast...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE Risk markets maintained positive momentum in February on expectations of a dovish Fed and a trade agreement between the U.S. and China U.S. economic data trend has slowed relative to expectations in recent weeks January 30 FOMC minutes suggested the...read more
ECONOMIC UPDATE Riskier assets bounced back in January following a rough end to 2018 A more dovish Fed was the primary source of improved sentiment At the January meeting, the FOMC called for “patience” regarding future policy decisions, and a separate statement...read more
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