Monthly Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Recession speculation ratcheted higher on July 28 when it was reported that GDP contracted for a second straight quarterThe Q2 GDP report did show signs that Fed tightening is having a negative impact on sectors more sensitive to interest rates, such...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Interest rate volatility reached 2022 highs in June as an above-expectations May CPI report drove the first 75 basis point (bp) Fed rate hike since 1994Inflation worries morphed into recession worries and potential Fed policy error as the month...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The biggest unanswered question for financial markets at this point is how the U.S. economy will respond to high inflation and tightening financial conditionsSome Fed leaders have expressed an openness to a pause or slowdown in the pace of rate hikes...

ECONOMIC UPDATE The first quarter was historically bad for fixed income, and April did nothing to break the bearish trendRecent economic data support the narrative of an overheated labor market and inflation risksThere are plenty of potential obstacles for future...

ECONOMIC UPDATE It was a historically bad quarter for fixed income as the market repriced for a much more aggressive Federal Reserve to combat the highest inflation readings since the early 1980sThere are multiple sources of uncertainty weighing on financial markets,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Heightened uncertainty has weighed on financial markets in 2022, and the escalating conflict in Ukraine presents new complexities to the domestic and global economic outlooksThe Fed is set to raise the federal funds rate at the March 16 FOMC meeting,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE A hawkish shift in the Fed’s tone triggered a negative response in U.S. financial markets in January, sending bond yields higher, spreads wider, and making it the worst January for the S&P 500 since 2009Fixed income markets are pricing in...

ECONOMIC UPDATE High credit quality fixed income portfolios were challenged in 2021 by higher rates and elevated interest rate volatility, fueled by inflation worries and anticipation of the Fed’s responseInflation remains the predominant economic theme to begin 2022,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE A predominant buzzword for 2021, “transitory” may need to be retired as a description of inflation risks according to Fed Chair Jerome PowellA demand shock from trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus continues to overwhelm supply, causing more...

ECONOMIC UPDATE Inflation became the clear and predominant economic theme in October amid stubborn supply chain issues and emerging wage pressuresFixed income markets are now pricing a much more aggressive Fed rate hike schedule for 2022-2023, including two 25 basis...