September 1, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields rose overnight on better economic data from China and Japan but are catching a better bid in this morning’s trading session. Other than the Asian economic data, the news cycle is relatively quiet today. Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak on the new monetary policy framework today. Brainard set the table for the shift average inflation targeting during a speech two months ago, and market participants will be listening for any hints regarding enhancements to the Fed’s forward guidance in the near future related to this framework change. Vice Chair Clarida spoke on the same topic yesterday, providing more reasoning/justification for the change without overtly acknowledging prior policy mistakes by the central bank. He also seemed to pour cold water on the Fed implementing yield curve control anytime soon, suggesting that doing so is complicated to implement and communicate. Clarida emphasized that forward guidance and asset purchases will continue to be the Fed’s preferred policy tools, but to be fair, the discussion of yield curve control in the June FOMC minutes was conditioned by the premise that forward guidance was no longer “credible on its own.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/31/20	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	0	8	-3	—
9/1/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	53.6	—	53.6	—
9/1/20	ISM Manufacturing	54.8	—	54.2	—
9/1/20	ISM New Orders	58.8	—	61.5	—
9/1/20	ISM Prices Paid	54	—	53.2	—
9/1/20	ISM Employment	—	—	44.3	—
9/1/20	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	—	-0.70%	—
9/1/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.90m	—	14.52m	—
9/2/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.50%	—
9/2/20	ADP Employment Change	1000k	—	167k	—
9/2/20	Factory Orders	6.10%	—	6.20%	—
9/2/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	4.40%	—
9/2/20	Durable Goods Orders	11.20%	—	11.20%	—
9/2/20	Durables Ex Transportation	2.40%	—	2.40%	—
9/2/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	1.90%	—	1.90%	—
9/2/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	2.40%	—
9/2/20	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/3/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	576.10%	—
9/3/20	Nonfarm Productivity	7.50%	—	7.30%	—
9/3/20	Unit Labor Costs	12.00%	—	12.20%	—
9/3/20	Initial Jobless Claims	950k	—	1006k	—
9/3/20	Continuing Claims	14000k	—	14535k	—
9/3/20	Trade Balance	-$58.0b	—	-$50.7b	—
9/3/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.3	—
9/3/20	Markit US Services PMI	54.7	—	54.8	—
9/3/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	54.7	—
9/3/20	ISM Services Index	57	—	58.1	—
9/4/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	1370k	—	1763k	—
9/4/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	17k	—
9/4/20	Change in Private Payrolls	1288k	—	1462k	—
9/4/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	55k	—	26k	—
9/4/20	Unemployment Rate	9.80%	—	10.20%	—
9/4/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.00%	—	0.20%	—
9/4/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.40%	—	4.80%	—
9/4/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.5	—	34.5	—
9/4/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	—	61.40%	—
9/4/20	Underemployment Rate	—	—	16.50%	—

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