September 1, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields rose overnight on better economic data from China and Japan but are catching a better bid in this morning’s trading session. Other than the Asian economic data, the news cycle is relatively quiet today. Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak on the new monetary policy framework today. Brainard set the table for the shift average inflation targeting during a speech two months ago, and market participants will be listening for any hints regarding enhancements to the Fed’s forward guidance in the near future related to this framework change. Vice Chair Clarida spoke on the same topic yesterday, providing more reasoning/justification for the change without overtly acknowledging prior policy mistakes by the central bank. He also seemed to pour cold water on the Fed implementing yield curve control anytime soon, suggesting that doing so is complicated to implement and communicate. Clarida emphasized that forward guidance and asset purchases will continue to be the Fed’s preferred policy tools, but to be fair, the discussion of yield curve control in the June FOMC minutes was conditioned by the premise that forward guidance was no longer “credible on its own.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
8/31/20	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	0	8	-3	—
9/1/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	53.6	—	53.6	—
9/1/20	ISM Manufacturing	54.8	—	54.2	—
9/1/20	ISM New Orders	58.8	—	61.5	—
9/1/20	ISM Prices Paid	54	—	53.2	—
9/1/20	ISM Employment	—	—	44.3	—
9/1/20	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	—	-0.70%	—
9/1/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.90m	—	14.52m	—
9/2/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.50%	—
9/2/20	ADP Employment Change	1000k	—	167k	—
9/2/20	Factory Orders	6.10%	—	6.20%	—
9/2/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	4.40%	—
9/2/20	Durable Goods Orders	11.20%	—	11.20%	—
9/2/20	Durables Ex Transportation	2.40%	—	2.40%	—
9/2/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	1.90%	—	1.90%	—
9/2/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	2.40%	—
9/2/20	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/3/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	576.10%	—
9/3/20	Nonfarm Productivity	7.50%	—	7.30%	—
9/3/20	Unit Labor Costs	12.00%	—	12.20%	—
9/3/20	Initial Jobless Claims	950k	—	1006k	—
9/3/20	Continuing Claims	14000k	—	14535k	—
9/3/20	Trade Balance	-$58.0b	—	-$50.7b	—
9/3/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.3	—
9/3/20	Markit US Services PMI	54.7	—	54.8	—
9/3/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	54.7	—
9/3/20	ISM Services Index	57	—	58.1	—
9/4/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	1370k	—	1763k	—
9/4/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	17k	—
9/4/20	Change in Private Payrolls	1288k	—	1462k	—
9/4/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	55k	—	26k	—
9/4/20	Unemployment Rate	9.80%	—	10.20%	—
9/4/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.00%	—	0.20%	—
9/4/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.40%	—	4.80%	—
9/4/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.5	—	34.5	—
9/4/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.80%	—	61.40%	—
9/4/20	Underemployment Rate	—	—	16.50%	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

July 28, 2021 Headlines July 28, 2021
Leveraging Technology for a Better Pricing Experience with Mortgage Pipeline Hedging July 27, 2021
July 27, 2021 Headlines July 27, 2021

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.