September 1, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields rose overnight on better economic data from China and Japan but are catching a better bid in this morning’s trading session. Other than the Asian economic data, the news cycle is relatively quiet today. Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak on the new monetary policy framework today. Brainard set the table for the shift average inflation targeting during a speech two months ago, and market participants will be listening for any hints regarding enhancements to the Fed’s forward guidance in the near future related to this framework change. Vice Chair Clarida spoke on the same topic yesterday, providing more reasoning/justification for the change without overtly acknowledging prior policy mistakes by the central bank. He also seemed to pour cold water on the Fed implementing yield curve control anytime soon, suggesting that doing so is complicated to implement and communicate. Clarida emphasized that forward guidance and asset purchases will continue to be the Fed’s preferred policy tools, but to be fair, the discussion of yield curve control in the June FOMC minutes was conditioned by the premise that forward guidance was no longer “credible on its own.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
8/31/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 0 8 -3 —
9/1/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.6 — 53.6 —
9/1/20 ISM Manufacturing 54.8 — 54.2 —
9/1/20 ISM New Orders 58.8 — 61.5 —
9/1/20 ISM Prices Paid 54 — 53.2 —
9/1/20 ISM Employment — — 44.3 —
9/1/20 Construction Spending MoM 1.00% — -0.70% —
9/1/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 14.90m — 14.52m —
9/2/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -6.50% —
9/2/20 ADP Employment Change 1000k — 167k —
9/2/20 Factory Orders 6.10% — 6.20% —
9/2/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 4.40% —
9/2/20 Durable Goods Orders 11.20% — 11.20% —
9/2/20 Durables Ex Transportation 2.40% — 2.40% —
9/2/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.90% — 1.90% —
9/2/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.40% —
9/2/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/3/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 576.10% —
9/3/20 Nonfarm Productivity 7.50% — 7.30% —
9/3/20 Unit Labor Costs 12.00% — 12.20% —
9/3/20 Initial Jobless Claims 950k — 1006k —
9/3/20 Continuing Claims 14000k — 14535k —
9/3/20 Trade Balance -$58.0b — -$50.7b —
9/3/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 44.3 —
9/3/20 Markit US Services PMI 54.7 — 54.8 —
9/3/20 Markit US Composite PMI — — 54.7 —
9/3/20 ISM Services Index 57 — 58.1 —
9/4/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 1370k — 1763k —
9/4/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — 17k —
9/4/20 Change in Private Payrolls 1288k — 1462k —
9/4/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 55k — 26k —
9/4/20 Unemployment Rate 9.80% — 10.20% —
9/4/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.00% — 0.20% —
9/4/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.40% — 4.80% —
9/4/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 — 34.5 —
9/4/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.80% — 61.40% —
9/4/20 Underemployment Rate — — 16.50% —

 

 

 

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