September 10, 2019 Headlines

It’s a quiet morning in the markets with Treasuries little changed and S&P 500 futures a touch lower. Market participants are more focused on monetary policy this week, more specifically Thursday’s ECB meeting and next week’s Fed meeting. That said, an unexpected trade headline would quickly redirect market attention.

On another note, there’s been some chatter over the last week regarding the GSE Housing Reform Plan released by the Treasury Department last Thursday evening. GSE reform is something that’s been talked about for nearly 10 years since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went into conservatorship, but any attempt at passing legislation has fallen well short in Congress. This issue came back into focus this year when Mark Calabria was confirmed as head of the FHFA. He has been a big proponent of housing finance reform, particularly increasing the private market’s footprint. His team finally submitted their recommendations to Congress for legislative action, but as we’ve seen it characterized by some folks, it’s more of a “plan for a plan.” The expectations for Congressional action remain low, so it’s more about what can be done by administrative/executive order. Perhaps most import for investors of GSE-backed MBS, the report is careful to stress much caution with regards to altering the status of the guarantee and its impact on the stability of the MBS market. The plan calls for an explicit guarantee of eligible, conventional mortgages, similar to what “wraps” Ginnie Mae MBS. In other words, Calabria and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are making it clear that they want to avoid market disruption.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

9/9/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$23.294b$14.596b$13.781b
9/10/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103.5103.1104.7
9/10/2019JOLTS Job Openings7331721773487248
9/11/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%0.20%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.70%1.70%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.70%
9/11/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%-0.30%
9/11/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
9/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.80%0.90%
9/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.30%1.40%
9/12/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI YoY1.80%1.80%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
9/12/2019CPI Core Index SA264.1263.569
9/12/2019CPI Index NSA256.586256.571
9/12/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k217k
9/12/2019Continuing Claims1675k1662k
9/12/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.4
9/12/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$195.0b-$119.7b
9/13/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.50%0.20%
9/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%
9/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.00%-1.80%
9/13/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.30%0.20%
9/13/2019Export Price Index YoY-0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.70%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%1.00%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%1.00%
9/13/2019Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment90.889.8
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions107.8105.3
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.279.9
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
9/13/2019Business Inventories0.30%0.00%



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