September 10, 2019 Headlines

It’s a quiet morning in the markets with Treasuries little changed and S&P 500 futures a touch lower. Market participants are more focused on monetary policy this week, more specifically Thursday’s ECB meeting and next week’s Fed meeting. That said, an unexpected trade headline would quickly redirect market attention.

On another note, there’s been some chatter over the last week regarding the GSE Housing Reform Plan released by the Treasury Department last Thursday evening. GSE reform is something that’s been talked about for nearly 10 years since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went into conservatorship, but any attempt at passing legislation has fallen well short in Congress. This issue came back into focus this year when Mark Calabria was confirmed as head of the FHFA. He has been a big proponent of housing finance reform, particularly increasing the private market’s footprint. His team finally submitted their recommendations to Congress for legislative action, but as we’ve seen it characterized by some folks, it’s more of a “plan for a plan.” The expectations for Congressional action remain low, so it’s more about what can be done by administrative/executive order. Perhaps most import for investors of GSE-backed MBS, the report is careful to stress much caution with regards to altering the status of the guarantee and its impact on the stability of the MBS market. The plan calls for an explicit guarantee of eligible, conventional mortgages, similar to what “wraps” Ginnie Mae MBS. In other words, Calabria and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are making it clear that they want to avoid market disruption.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/9/2019 Consumer Credit $16.000b $23.294b $14.596b $13.781b
9/10/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 103.5 103.1 104.7
9/10/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 7331 7217 7348 7248
9/11/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.00% 0.20%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.70% 1.70%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.70%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% -0.30%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20%
9/12/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.80% 0.90%
9/12/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.30% 1.40%
9/12/2019 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI YoY 1.80% 1.80%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.20%
9/12/2019 CPI Core Index SA 264.1 263.569
9/12/2019 CPI Index NSA 256.586 256.571
9/12/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 217k
9/12/2019 Continuing Claims 1675k 1662k
9/12/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.4
9/12/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$195.0b -$119.7b
9/13/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.00%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index YoY -2.00% -1.80%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index YoY -0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% 0.70%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 90.8 89.8
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 107.8 105.3
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.2 79.9
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
9/13/2019 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.00%



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