Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher on weakness in Chinese and emerging market equities (follow through to Trump’s trade comments Friday afternoon). European and U.S. stocks are faring better today, with S&P 500 futures up 10 points at the moment. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the August CPI (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday) reports, and several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week as well. A Wall Street Journal article today discusses the internal debate at the Fed over raising the counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB) for large banks to reduce risks of future financial imbalances. We discussed this topic in more detail in our September Market Commentary released last week, and it’s worth noting that Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randall Quarles will be testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. Quarles oversees bank regulation, and he would presumably have the most valuable input in the Board of Governor’s decision on CCyB. Whether the senators actually ask him about it is a whole other question.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/10/2018Consumer Credit$14.400b$10.211b
09/11/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism108.1107.9
09/11/2018JOLTS Job Openings66756662
09/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%-0.10%
09/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.70%
09/12/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.00%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.20%3.30%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.70%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.80%
09/12/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
09/13/2018CPI MoM0.30%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI YoY2.80%2.90%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%
09/13/2018CPI Index NSA252.389252.006
09/13/2018CPI Core Index SA258.48257.93
09/13/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.10%
09/13/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.20%-0.10%
09/13/2018Initial Jobless Claims210k203k
09/13/2018Continuing Claims1710k1707k
09/13/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
09/13/2018Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
09/13/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$183.0b-$76.9b
09/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.50%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.60%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.60%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%
09/14/2018Import Price Index MoM-0.30%0.00%
09/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.10%
09/14/2018Import Price Index YoY4.10%4.80%
09/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.00%-0.50%
09/14/2018Export Price Index YoY4.30%
09/14/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.10%
09/14/2018Capacity Utilization78.30%78.10%
09/14/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.30%
09/14/2018Business Inventories0.50%0.10%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment96.896.2
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions110.3
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.1
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%